Storm Warning 10, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 122055 AAB
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1155 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

UPDATED ZONE 185

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-130300-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 962 MB LOW 530 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 300 NM SOUTH OF
DUTCH HARBOR TUE NIGHT AT 965 MB.

$$

PKZ150-130300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-130300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-130300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. 
.WED AND THU...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-130300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-130300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-130300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND INCREASING TO E WIND 20 KT THIS MORNING THEN
INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY BERING SIDE.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-130300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-130300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY
BERING SIDE. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-130300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY
BERING SIDE.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-130300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
635 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT EXCEPT NE 35 KT W OF KISKA. SEAS 15 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-130300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. STRONGEST WIND
WEST OF 176W. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-130300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS BUILDING TO 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 130031
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-131500-
400 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 961 MB LOW 450 NM SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 250 NM SOUTHWEST OF
DUTCH HARBOR WED AT 960 MB. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO BRISTOL BAY WED.

$$

PKZ150-131500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-131500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW.  
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-131500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-131500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-131500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  PATCHY
FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-131500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 12 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-131500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS BUILDING TO
12 FT TONIGHT. SNOW BECOMING MIXED WITH RAIN. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-131500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-131500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-131500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-131500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HIGHER WIND
AND SEAS WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-131500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
410 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS WERE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL THROUGH 84 HRS. THERE
WERE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES ON THE HANDLING OF THE LOW IN THE GULF.
WENT WITH A POSITION SOMEWHERE NEAR CORDOVA BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND
MOVES INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LEANED TOWARD
GFS/EC FOR MOST OF THE PACKAGE. LONG TERM FORECAST STILL HAS A FEW
KINKS. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO RESOLVE NEW WAVE PATTERN IN THE
BERING. WENT WITH THE 00Z EC AND BLENDED WITH HPC 12Z GRIDS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A MAJOR LOW IS CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL GULF JUST SOUTHWEST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND. ITS ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT IS BRINGING SNOW FROM
BRISTOL BAY TO THE Y-K DELTA..KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND ACROSS COASTAL
SOUTHCENTRAL. WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS EXPECT SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL AND SUSITNA VALLEY AS WELL AS NE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
THE FRONT HAS BROUGHT VERY LOW CEILINGS AND VIS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE INTIAL DROP AND THE
EVENTUAL RISE ESPECIALLY IN THE TAFS. SNOW INTENSITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY
LIGHT..HOWEVER STILL EXPECT MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
IN BRISTOL BAY AND NEAR KACHEMAK BAY ESPECIALLY IN SELDOVIA AND THE
HOMER BLUFF.

A SECOND 960S LOW IS IMPACTING THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
ALTHOUGH OBS ARE NOT PLENTIFUL IN THAT AREA..WE DO EXPECT BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING FROM AMCHITKA EAST. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONTAL BAND
MAKES ITS WAY EAST. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM SO DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH CHANGE THROUGH TUE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR WIND SHIFTS. WHILE THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF WARM UP TODAY..EXPECT COLD NORTHERLIES BEHIND THE LOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...THE LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS BRINGS SNOW AND
WIND THROUGH TUESDAY AT IT MAKES ITS WAY EAST WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS FROM AMCHITKA TO ATKA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL REMAIN
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO NOT ADVECT MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE AREA AND THEN
COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE LOW WITH NORTH WINDS AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

FOR SW AK...THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE GULF WILL BRING MORE
SNOW..SNOW SHOWERS AND WIND TO ALL OF MAINLAND SW AK TODAY.
BY THIS AFTERNOON THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE EVENTS WEAKENS IN THE
GULF AND PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES. HOWEVER THE LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON WED WITH MORE
WIND AND PRECIP AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX DEVELOPS FROM NW AK
TO THE AK PENN AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...THE LOW IN THE GULF WILL BRING SOME
SNOW TO MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY. A BARRIER JET WILL PRODUCE SOME
GALES ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST TODAY. MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL LEAVE
THE WESTERN PART OF SOUTHCENTRAL BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE COPPER
RIVER VALLEY AND NE GULF COAST WILL SEE MORE SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...EXPECT WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
MIDWEEK. IT WILL BE WETTER AND WINDIER OUT WEST. THEN BY THURSDAY
COLD AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN TO SOUTHCENTRAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 187 191
MARINE...STORMS 175
         GALES 120 130 138 140 170 172 176 179
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 140 165 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RNW JAN 09