Gale Warning 66, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 121748 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
847 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

CORRECTED ZONE 125

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-130300-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 988 MB LOW 125 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR
CORDOVA MON EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF FROM
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-130300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
640 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT SHIFTING TO N 40 KT BY LATE MORNING THEN
BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-130300-
RESURRECTION BAY
840 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-130300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
840 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 
40 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-130300-
PASSAGE CANAL
840 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT BY LATE MORNING. GUSTS TO 40 KT
NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-130300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
840 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS 
IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-130300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
840 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-130300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
840 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-130300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
840 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. N OF KALGIN
ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT SUBSIDING
TO 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NE 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW.  
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-130300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 130004
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-131500-
400 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A STRONG FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA MON NIGHT AND
REACH THE NORTHERN GULF TUE. ANOTHER FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHWEST GULF
OF ALASKA WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-131500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 35 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-131500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 

$$

PKZ125-131500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONGER
GUSTS 25 KT OUT OF NORTHEASTERN BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-131500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO W 15 KT IN THE EVENING. WIND
BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.  

$$

PKZ130-131500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 5 FT WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-131500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-131500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-131500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NE 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-131500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN.  
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
410 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS WERE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL THROUGH 84 HRS. THERE
WERE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES ON THE HANDLING OF THE LOW IN THE GULF.
WENT WITH A POSITION SOMEWHERE NEAR CORDOVA BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND
MOVES INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LEANED TOWARD
GFS/EC FOR MOST OF THE PACKAGE. LONG TERM FORECAST STILL HAS A FEW
KINKS. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO RESOLVE NEW WAVE PATTERN IN THE
BERING. WENT WITH THE 00Z EC AND BLENDED WITH HPC 12Z GRIDS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A MAJOR LOW IS CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL GULF JUST SOUTHWEST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND. ITS ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT IS BRINGING SNOW FROM
BRISTOL BAY TO THE Y-K DELTA..KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND ACROSS COASTAL
SOUTHCENTRAL. WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS EXPECT SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL AND SUSITNA VALLEY AS WELL AS NE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
THE FRONT HAS BROUGHT VERY LOW CEILINGS AND VIS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE INTIAL DROP AND THE
EVENTUAL RISE ESPECIALLY IN THE TAFS. SNOW INTENSITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY
LIGHT..HOWEVER STILL EXPECT MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
IN BRISTOL BAY AND NEAR KACHEMAK BAY ESPECIALLY IN SELDOVIA AND THE
HOMER BLUFF.

A SECOND 960S LOW IS IMPACTING THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
ALTHOUGH OBS ARE NOT PLENTIFUL IN THAT AREA..WE DO EXPECT BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING FROM AMCHITKA EAST. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONTAL BAND
MAKES ITS WAY EAST. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM SO DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH CHANGE THROUGH TUE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR WIND SHIFTS. WHILE THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF WARM UP TODAY..EXPECT COLD NORTHERLIES BEHIND THE LOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...THE LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS BRINGS SNOW AND
WIND THROUGH TUESDAY AT IT MAKES ITS WAY EAST WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS FROM AMCHITKA TO ATKA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL REMAIN
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO NOT ADVECT MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE AREA AND THEN
COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE LOW WITH NORTH WINDS AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

FOR SW AK...THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE GULF WILL BRING MORE
SNOW..SNOW SHOWERS AND WIND TO ALL OF MAINLAND SW AK TODAY.
BY THIS AFTERNOON THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE EVENTS WEAKENS IN THE
GULF AND PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES. HOWEVER THE LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON WED WITH MORE
WIND AND PRECIP AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX DEVELOPS FROM NW AK
TO THE AK PENN AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...THE LOW IN THE GULF WILL BRING SOME
SNOW TO MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY. A BARRIER JET WILL PRODUCE SOME
GALES ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST TODAY. MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL LEAVE
THE WESTERN PART OF SOUTHCENTRAL BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE COPPER
RIVER VALLEY AND NE GULF COAST WILL SEE MORE SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...EXPECT WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
MIDWEEK. IT WILL BE WETTER AND WINDIER OUT WEST. THEN BY THURSDAY
COLD AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN TO SOUTHCENTRAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 187 191
MARINE...STORMS 175
         GALES 120 130 138 140 170 172 176 179
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 140 165 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RNW JAN 09