Small Craft Advisory 784, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 291837 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
10 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2009

CORRECTS ZONE 125

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-300200-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 1004 MB LOW 75 NM NORTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 995 MB LOW 90 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD TUE NIGHT AND MOVE TO
60 NM SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT BY THU MORNING.  

$$

PKZ120-300200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
10 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...WINDS INCREASING TO E 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.  
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT..DIMINISHING TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 11. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-300200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2009

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-300200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
10 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2009


.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 
4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-300200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2009

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-300200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT THIS MORNING THEN DIMINISHING TO
15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-300200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2009

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-300200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-300200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-300200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

166 
FZAK51 PAFC 292332
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-301400-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEAK 1002 MB AROUND 120 NM EAST OF KODIAK WILL MOVE EAST AND
DISSIPATE LATE TUE NIGHT. A NEW DEVELOPING LOW ABOUT 125 NM SE OF
SAND POINT WILL DEEPEN TO 993 MB AND MOVE TO 35 NM SOUTHWEST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND WED MORNING. THIS STORM WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO 70
NM WEST OF SITKA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT 1008 MB.  

$$

PKZ120-301400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 35 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 10 FT E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND
BY MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING 
NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-301400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-301400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-301400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-301400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2009

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE
WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...4 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE WIND 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-301400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2009

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-301400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-301400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT DECREASING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-301400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2009

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RETRANSMITTED
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
915 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS...GFS NAM EC UKMET...ALL IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 84
HOURS. NAM PREFERRED OPERATIONALLY THROUGH 84 HOURS FOR THE SAKE OF
BETTER RESOLUTION. GFS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY NOT AS EXCELLENT AS
LAST FEW DAYS BUT STILL SUPERIOR TO EC. TRENDED MIDTERM TOWARDS GFS.
TRENDED LONG TERM TOWARDS HPC GUIDANCE.

.UPPER LEVELS...
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HIGH ARCTIC ACROSS
CENTRAL BERING SEA. TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD TO LIE ACROSS MAINLAND
ALASKA BY WED AFTERNOON AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. CUT OFF UPPER CENTER DEVELOPS SOUTHWEST OF THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA WED MORNING AND MOVES TO JUST SOUTH OF SHEMYA THURSDAY
MORNING.

.SURFACE FEATURES...
A LARGE 990 MB LOW WEST OF SAINT PAUL WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE
INLAND NEAR KING SALMON WED MORNING THEN DISSIPATE NEAR ILIAMNA BY
WED MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS IN AN ARC FROM
THE LOW CENTER...THROUGH SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND...THE YUKON KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE BARREN ISLANDS. THE FRONT ITSELF
IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND AND
DISSIPATES BY WED AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A SMALLER 1004 MB SECONDARY
LOW NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME THE
DOMINANT FEATURE ON THE MAP. BY TUE NIGHT THE LOW SHOULD BE AT 995
MB AND BE POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF SEWARD. THE LOW THEN MAINTAINS
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF BY
THU MORNING.
FAR OUT WEST ON TUE NIGHT...A 989 MB LOW APPROACHES SHEMYA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN...REACHING ADAK ON TUE NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND AS FAR NORTH OF MCGRATH.
PLENTY OF WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING SYSTEM BUT RAIN
MAY NEVERTHELESS BE MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IN THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. LITTLE OR
NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW EXPECTED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. UP TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW ACCUMULATING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA
AND CHUGACH RANGE.
GALE FORCE SOUTHWESTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE BERING
LOW WILL DIMINISH ON TUE NIGHT ONLY WHEN THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES
INLAND.
GALE FORCE NORTHWESTERLIES DEVELOP ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW IN THE GULF BEGINS TO DOMINATE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LOW NEAR ADAK ON TUE NIGHT...MENTIONED ABOVE...IS EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK AS THIS FIRST SYSTEM. STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA ON THURSDAY AND THEN WEAKENING
AS IT MOVES INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 132 150 155 165 170 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB SEP 09