Gale Warning 599, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1255 PM AKDT MON SEP 28 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...12Z RUNS OF NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
BERING LOW WHICH MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BOTH
MODELS INDICATE THAT A SECONDARY LOW FORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA TUESDAY MORNING...THIS BECOMES THE PRIMARY LOW WED
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF FROM
THE BERING.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE TODAY IS THE
FRONT LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AK PENINSULA WHICH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH BERING SEA LOW.  THE FRONT FOLLOWS THE REGION OF
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN GULF TUE MORNING. SECONDARY SURFACE LOW THAT FORMS TUE IN
THE NORTHERN GULF DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. COOL AIR THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL SHOULD BE REPLACED BY
WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH MON EVENING THROUGH WED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER
MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. AS NOTED ABOVE AIR
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST SHOULD INCREASE TUE AND WED BUT COOLING
AGAIN ON THU IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT LIVED RIDGE. WHAT SNOW THAT DOES
FALL SHOULD BE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT EAST OF 155W.
AREA OF STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS (WESTERLY) SHOULD BE IN THE ALEUTIANS
AND SOUTHERN BERING TUE AND WED AND THEN OVER AK PENINSULA ON THU.
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MODELS FORECASTING A TRANSIENT RIDGE TO MOVE
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THU AND EARLY FRI BUT NEXT FRONT PUSHES INTO
SOUTHWEST ZONES FRI MORNING AND INTO SOUTHCENTRAL BY FRI EVENING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 120 125
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP SEP 09