Small Craft Advisory 68, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST SUN JAN 18 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 60
HOURS. ALL MODELS HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY LOCKING ONTO THE LOW CENTER
JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. REGARDING THE MID
AND LONG RANGE...GFS PREFERRED OUT WEST...ECMWF PREFERRED IN THE
EAST.

.UPPER LEVELS...
LONG WAVE TROUGH HOLDS OVER THE BERING WHILE RIDGING PERISTS OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 AND CANADA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE GULF...WITH FETCH EXTENDING AS FAR
SOUTH AS 30N...WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME DISORGANIZED BY MON
EVENING.

.SURFACE FEATURES...
A 991 MB LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WILL WEAKEN TO 1014 MB OVER NORTHERN
COOK INLET MON AFTERNOON THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY TUE EVENING.
A 990 MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA WILL DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD
DISSIPATE WEST OF THE DATELINE TUE AFTERNOON. A 991 MB LOW JUST
SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL WEAKEN TO 1014 MB IN THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA MON AFTERNOON THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...FREEZING LEVELS DROPPING BEHIND THE EXITING
OCCLUSION. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH PRECIP CHANGING BACK OVER TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY
MORNING. GUSTY EAST WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS...ESPECIALLY
THOMPSON PASS AND TURNAGAIN ARM...WILL PEAK THIS EVENING THEN
DIMINISH BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA...NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
AND EASTERN BRISTOL BAY ZONES. EASTERLY FLOW AND PARTIAL CLEARING
BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE PRIBILOFS...ALASKA PENINSULA...AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN...THE STORM
MOVING IN OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL SPREAD PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. SUFFICIENT WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THE SNOW TO BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES OVER
THE EASTERN ALEUIANS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. COLD ADVECTION AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE REAR FLANK OF THE STORM.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK WHEN A RETURN TO ORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR. WEATHER OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL BE CALM FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK...WHILE THE BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...

*** JAN 09