Gale Warning 83, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 190102 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 18 2009

CORRECTED 138 TYPO

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-191500-
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 994 MB LOW NEAR KODIAK CITY MOVES NEAR HOMER SUN NIGHT AND THEN
MOVES INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH
TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-191500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 18 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 12
FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-191500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 18 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-191500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 18 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-191500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 18 2009

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.  

$$

PKZ130-191500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. SNOW.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-191500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-191500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-191500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 18 2009

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE WIND 15 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 25 KT
OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT
BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N
OF KALGIN ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
 

$$

PKZ141-191500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 18 2009

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 191256
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST MON JAN 19 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-200300-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1001 MB LOW NEAR KODIAK CITY WILL WEAKEN TO 1014 OVER NORTHERN COOK
INLET MON AFTERNOON THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE.
$$

PKZ120-200300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST MON JAN 19 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT E 30 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND... SE
WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-200300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 19 2009

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-200300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST MON JAN 19 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-200300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST MON JAN 19 2009

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-200300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST MON JAN 19 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-200300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST MON JAN 19 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-200300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST MON JAN 19 2009

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-200300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 19 2009

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-200300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 19 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST SUN JAN 18 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE BERING SEA REMAINS IN A LONGWAVE
TROUGH WHILE STRONG RIDGING IS HOLDING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN IN THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING IS A
WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED LOW MOVING UP TOWARD
KODIAK FROM THE SOUTH. BEHIND THIS FRONT IS A 160KT SOUTHERLY JET
CONTINUING TO BRING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TOWARD
ALASKA. THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE BERING SEA AS WELL
AS ANOTHER OCCLUDED LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. ALL OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOWS HAVE MAXED IN INTENSITY AND WILL BE IN A GENERAL
WEAKENING TREND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION... MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE
FIRST FEW DAYS. THE NAM IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET MOVING THE
OCCLUDED FRONT NORTH AND WEST...SO IT IS THE OUTLIER THIS MORNING.
THE GFS AND THE EC HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES THAT START TO REALLY DEVELOP
WEST OF THE AKPEN BY MIDWEEK. IT IS HARD TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION...IF
ANY...WILL BE CORRECT. SINCE CURRENT FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE
GFS...AND WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT REASON TO CHANGE...THE MORNING PACKAGE
WILL ALSO BE BASED LOOSELY ON THE GFS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...PRECIP IS AFFECTING MOST AREAS THIS MORNING AND IS
FALLING GENERALLY AS RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
FURTHER INLAND. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE PRECIP TYPE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN AREAS LIKE THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. PRECIP SHOULD
NOT BE LONG AND HEAVY LIKE PREVIOUS STORMS...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE ADDITIONAL MINOR LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL EXCEPT MAYBE A FEW INCHES ON THE
ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE AND IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE BRUNT OF THE
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING ONLY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE COOK INLET
AREA. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THE THREAT OF PRECIP
RETURNS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR FILTERS BACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW MOVES TO NEAR PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AND
GIVE MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL A MUCH NEEDED BREAK.

.WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA...MOST OF THE ACTION TODAY WILL
TAKE PLACE IN THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE
THREAT OF SNOW WILL EXIST FROM COLD BAY WEST TO ADAK. THE STRONG LOW
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF WARM AIR AND
RAIN TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH
COLD NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK WHEN A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR. WEATHER OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL BE CALM FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK...WHILE THE BERING SEA WILL SEE CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD 131.
MARINE...GALE...120 155 165 170 171 172 175 179 185 411 412 413 414
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 179 411 412 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AMD JAN 09