Small Craft Advisory 678, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS AND NAM ONCE AGAIN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH 72 HOURS ON THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURES.  LOW IN NORTHERN
GULF OF AK THIS MORNING MOVES SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND AND MERGES WITH
FORMER LOW THAT HAD MOVED THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS MID WEEK.  THIS
SYSTEM THEN MOVES INTO THE GULF AND SPINS AROUND OVER THE WEEKEND AS
IT WEAKENS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALEUTIANS SLOWLY MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...MAIN ENERGY OVER THE REGION REMAINS WITH

FORMER ALEUTIAN LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.  STRONGEST
WINDS ALOFT ARE OVER THE EASTERN GULF. IN THE LOWER TROP MOISTURE
BEING TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD IN TO THE NORTHERN GULF AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING REGION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER MUCH OF THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE.
SOUTHWEST...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS.
SOUTHCENTRAL...CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUED
TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...GFS INDICATING A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SERIES OF TROUGHS
EMERGING FROM SIBERIA LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
CLOUDS AND RAIN TO MOVE INTO FROM THE BERING ON MONDAY AS MODELS
INDICATE A DEEP TROUGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT. WOULD
ALSO EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS AIR MASS HAS SIBERIAN-ARCTIC ORIGINS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUING FOR 141
MARINE...GALE 155 170 171 179 414

JMP AUG 09