Gale Warning 561, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 282101 AAB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1255 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009

UPDATED 121

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-290200-
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 985 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY MERGES WITH A LOW TO THE
SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A 995 MB LOW 250 NM SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK CITY
FRIDAY EVENING WEAKENS TO 1005 MB SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES 200 NM
SOUTH OF CAPE ST. ELIAS.
$$

PKZ120-290200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT EXCEPT E 25 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-290200-
RESURRECTION BAY
1255 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT.
HIGHEST WINDS AND WAVES S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...S WIND 15 KT SHIFTING TO THE N IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-290200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
1035 AM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-290200-
PASSAGE CANAL
1035 AM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-290200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-290200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-290200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-290200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-290200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING NE 10 KT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 282359
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-291400-
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 996 MB LOW 350 NM S OF KODIAK CITY WILL WEAKEN TO 1000 MB AS IT
MOVES TO 150 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN
FURTHER TO 1010 MB AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST 350 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-291400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT E 30 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF 
MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND
35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-291400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT SHIFTING TO THE N THIS EVENING. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-291400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-291400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT THIS EVENING...THEN
BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-291400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT W 15 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-291400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-291400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 5 
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 4
FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-291400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-291400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS AND NAM ONCE AGAIN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH 72 HOURS ON THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURES.  LOW IN NORTHERN
GULF OF AK THIS MORNING MOVES SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND AND MERGES WITH
FORMER LOW THAT HAD MOVED THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS MID WEEK.  THIS
SYSTEM THEN MOVES INTO THE GULF AND SPINS AROUND OVER THE WEEKEND AS
IT WEAKENS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALEUTIANS SLOWLY MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...MAIN ENERGY OVER THE REGION REMAINS WITH

FORMER ALEUTIAN LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.  STRONGEST
WINDS ALOFT ARE OVER THE EASTERN GULF. IN THE LOWER TROP MOISTURE
BEING TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD IN TO THE NORTHERN GULF AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING REGION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER MUCH OF THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE.
SOUTHWEST...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS.
SOUTHCENTRAL...CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUED
TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...GFS INDICATING A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SERIES OF TROUGHS
EMERGING FROM SIBERIA LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
CLOUDS AND RAIN TO MOVE INTO FROM THE BERING ON MONDAY AS MODELS
INDICATE A DEEP TROUGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT. WOULD
ALSO EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS AIR MASS HAS SIBERIAN-ARCTIC ORIGINS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUING FOR 141
MARINE...GALE 155 170 171 179 414

JMP AUG 09