Small Craft Advisory 248, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 18 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT THE CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION DECREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY. THERE WILL BE A SMALL SHIFT IN THE PATTERN AND THE
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THAT A LITTLE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND INTO EASTERN RUSSIA. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ALSO PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE INTERIOR AND
INTO THE GULF CREATING STRONG NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA.
AT THE SURFACE THE COMPLEX LOW IN THE GULF HAS SETTLED DOWN A LITTLE
WITH ONLY TWO OR THREE SMALLER VORTEXES IN THE COMPLEX INSTEAD OF THE
HALF DOZEN FROM YESTERDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OFF THE ICE EDGE IN THE
BERING SEA AND OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. INCREASING COLD ADVECTION
IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA OVERNIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONGER WINDS
LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN THOSE AREAS.
IN THE GULF THE SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS
HAS PULLED FARTHER SOUTH AND SHOULD KEEP SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE GULF
WHILE INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST. KODIAK ISLAND SHOULD
ALSO BE OUT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART AS WELL.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...WHILE THE LONG WAVE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE IS NOW A GOOD INDICATION THAT THE BLOCKING
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL RETROGRADE SOME WESTWARD. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE STATE TO STRENGTHEN
ITS HOLD OVER THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE. IN SHORT...IT WILL
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 150 155 165 170 172 175 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 138 150 155 165 170 171 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAR 09