Gale Warning 246, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 191150
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 19 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-200200-
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THROUGH FRI
MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THU
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FRI. A 993 MB LOW WILL
MOVE TO NEAR 49N 177W BY SAT MORNING.
$$

PKZ411-200200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 19 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 14 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF 56N. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ412-200200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 19 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-200200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 19 2009

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT N WIND 20 KT EAST OF 175W. SEAS
6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-200200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 19 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 18 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT THE CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION DECREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY. THERE WILL BE A SMALL SHIFT IN THE PATTERN AND THE
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THAT A LITTLE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND INTO EASTERN RUSSIA. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ALSO PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE INTERIOR AND
INTO THE GULF CREATING STRONG NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA.
AT THE SURFACE THE COMPLEX LOW IN THE GULF HAS SETTLED DOWN A LITTLE
WITH ONLY TWO OR THREE SMALLER VORTEXES IN THE COMPLEX INSTEAD OF THE
HALF DOZEN FROM YESTERDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OFF THE ICE EDGE IN THE
BERING SEA AND OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. INCREASING COLD ADVECTION
IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA OVERNIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONGER WINDS
LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN THOSE AREAS.
IN THE GULF THE SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS
HAS PULLED FARTHER SOUTH AND SHOULD KEEP SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE GULF
WHILE INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST. KODIAK ISLAND SHOULD
ALSO BE OUT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART AS WELL.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...WHILE THE LONG WAVE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE IS NOW A GOOD INDICATION THAT THE BLOCKING
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL RETROGRADE SOME WESTWARD. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE STATE TO STRENGTHEN
ITS HOLD OVER THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE. IN SHORT...IT WILL
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 150 155 165 170 172 175 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 138 150 155 165 170 171 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAR 09