Small Craft Advisory 209, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST FRI MAR 6 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS, ECMWF AND NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BERING
SEA LOW POSITION THROUGH MONDAY...HOWEVER GFS RUNS 5 MB DEEPER ON
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TO 13 MB ON MONDAY...TEND TO GO WITH GFS
SOLUTION. THE GFS SOLTUION FOR THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON SUNDAY TENDS TO BE CONSIDERABLE FASTER THEN
THE OTHER TWO MODELS...REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHICH IS MORE REALISTIC.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AT 500 MB A BROAD RIDGE WITH AXIS OVER
THE WEST COAST MOVES NORTHWEARD AND SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS DRIVES SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE SOUTHERN
BERING UP TOWARD ST. LAWERENCE ISLAND. SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT MONDAY
OVER BRISTOL BAY ALLOWS FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF AK AS
RIDGE STARTS TO BE UNDERCUT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST...THIS LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
TODAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NEAR 62N.
THIS IS A RELATIVE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOICATED FRONT IS
SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AS WELL. A SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVES ALONG THE CHAIN TO THE
EAST

SOUTHCENTRAL...CLEAR/SUNNY SAT AND SUN MORNING WITH LITTLE WIND AS
SURFACE HIGH FORMS OVER THE INTERIOR.  LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS MOVE INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  COULD BE SOME PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AS REMANANT OF FRONT MOVES OVER AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
BERING SEA REGION...LOOKS AS IF BERING LOW IS SLOW TO
DISSIPATE...SHOULD SPIN AROUND NORTHERN BERING SEA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
 NOT MUCH OF INTEREST AT THE SURFACE UNTIL WED NIGHT WHEN NEXT NO PAC
SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN BERING...RIGHT NOW LOOKS AS IF STRONG SW
FLOW IN STORE FOR ALEUTIANS ON THUR.

SOUTHWEST...YET ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER FROM TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH THU LITTLE OF INTEREST.

SOUTHCENTRAL...WEAKEN FRONT WILL PROBABLE MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME
MONDAY PM BUT AFTER THAT LITTLE OF INTEREST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZ WARNING 191, BLIZ WATCH 155
MARINE...SEE PACKAGE FOR DETAILS
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP MAR 09