Gale Warning 282, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 080006
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 7 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-081500-
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON. A MODERATE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF SUN AND
WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD SUN NIGHT AND MON. 

$$

PKZ120-081500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 7 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-081500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 7 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-081500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 7 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND 
PASSES. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-081500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 7 2009

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-081500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 7 2009

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY WEST OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-081500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 7 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-081500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 7 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-081500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 7 2009

...SMALL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NE 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 
5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-081500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 7 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST FRI MAR 6 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS, ECMWF AND NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BERING
SEA LOW POSITION THROUGH MONDAY...HOWEVER GFS RUNS 5 MB DEEPER ON
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TO 13 MB ON MONDAY...TEND TO GO WITH GFS
SOLUTION. THE GFS SOLTUION FOR THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON SUNDAY TENDS TO BE CONSIDERABLE FASTER THEN
THE OTHER TWO MODELS...REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHICH IS MORE REALISTIC.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AT 500 MB A BROAD RIDGE WITH AXIS OVER
THE WEST COAST MOVES NORTHWEARD AND SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS DRIVES SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE SOUTHERN
BERING UP TOWARD ST. LAWERENCE ISLAND. SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT MONDAY
OVER BRISTOL BAY ALLOWS FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF AK AS
RIDGE STARTS TO BE UNDERCUT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST...THIS LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
TODAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NEAR 62N.
THIS IS A RELATIVE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOICATED FRONT IS
SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AS WELL. A SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVES ALONG THE CHAIN TO THE
EAST

SOUTHCENTRAL...CLEAR/SUNNY SAT AND SUN MORNING WITH LITTLE WIND AS
SURFACE HIGH FORMS OVER THE INTERIOR.  LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS MOVE INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  COULD BE SOME PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AS REMANANT OF FRONT MOVES OVER AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
BERING SEA REGION...LOOKS AS IF BERING LOW IS SLOW TO
DISSIPATE...SHOULD SPIN AROUND NORTHERN BERING SEA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
 NOT MUCH OF INTEREST AT THE SURFACE UNTIL WED NIGHT WHEN NEXT NO PAC
SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN BERING...RIGHT NOW LOOKS AS IF STRONG SW
FLOW IN STORE FOR ALEUTIANS ON THUR.

SOUTHWEST...YET ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER FROM TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH THU LITTLE OF INTEREST.

SOUTHCENTRAL...WEAKEN FRONT WILL PROBABLE MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME
MONDAY PM BUT AFTER THAT LITTLE OF INTEREST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZ WARNING 191, BLIZ WATCH 155
MARINE...SEE PACKAGE FOR DETAILS
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP MAR 09