Small Craft Advisory 183, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST WED FEB 25 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN IMPRESSIVE 985 MB LOW NEAR NUNIVAK
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...BUCKLING A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED
ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER. THIS LOW PRODUCED WINDS TO 100 MPH IN THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND CONTINUES WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS INTO
BRISTOL BAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL MOVE
QUICKLY BEHIND THE LOW BRINGING A BRIEF RESPIT TO THE WEATHER IN THE
BERING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BIGGEST
CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY CENTERING AROUND TRACKING THE LOW IN THE
EASTERN BERING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THE BIGGEST IMPACT TO
THIS POSITION CHANGE IS TO INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SNOW ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. BEYOND THIS TIME...THE GFS REMAINS
OUR MODEL OF CHOICE AS RIDGING POPS BACK UP IN THE EASTERN BERING
AHEAD OF ANOTHER POWERFUL FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN BERING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE POWERFUL LOW MOVING ONTO THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA WILL SPREAD HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONTO THE SW COAST THIS
EVENING. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR COASTAL FLOODING/EROSION AND ICE BUILD-UP.

THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL OVERNIGHT
SPREADING SNOW IN ITS WAKE DUE TO MOIST S/SW FLOW AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. STRONG GAP WINDS DEVELOP AS COLD AIR SPILLS SOUTH
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER THE MAINLAND ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PROGRESSIVE BERING SEA
FRONT. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE NEXT FRONT AS
IT MARCHES ACROSS THE BRING ON THURSDAY. AS WITH ITS
PREDECESSOR...THIS FRONT SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE BREAKING DOWN THE
RIDGE AND BARRELING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BRINGING
MORE SNOW TO THE REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING...155 161.
         MARINE...STORM 130 138 160 165 176 180 185.
                  GALE 120 132 140 141 150 155 170 172 175 179.
                  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 138 140 160 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JCA