Small Craft Advisory 13, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 040503 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
800 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

UPDATED ZONES 121 125 129 130 132 138 140

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-041500-
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 996 MB LOW 80 NM SOUTHEAST OF CORDOVA WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A 977
MB LOW 260 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
RAPIDLY MOVE TO 80 NM SOUTHWEST OF KLAWOCK SUN BEFORE MOVING INLAND. 
A TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-041500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
45 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF THE
COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-041500-
RESURRECTION BAY
800 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-041500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
800 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-041500-
PASSAGE CANAL
800 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-041500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
800 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-041500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
800 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-041500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
800 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-041500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
800 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT N WIND 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT N WIND 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF
KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 

$$

PKZ141-041500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A VERY STABLE PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS ALASKA. THE OMEGA BLOCKING
RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA IS BECOMING
PINCHED OFF BY TWO LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOWS...ONE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
AND A SECOND SOUTHEAST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS IS A 170 KT JET FLOWING OUT OF A LARGE UPPER TROF OVER THE
NPAC.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS
SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. A 977 MB IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE JET AND WILL RACE EASTWARD INTO THE GULF
AND MOVE INLAND NEAR JUNEAU SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A 995 MB LOW SOUTH OF
CORDOVA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS.
DIFFERENCES ARISE TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE GFS TRIES TO BRING A 988 MB
LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA. THE MORE LIKELY SOLUTION IS THE
ECMWF WHICH KEEPS THE LOW TRACK SOUTH OF THE CHAIN TOWARD THE AKPEN
THURSDAY NIGHT. WE WILL BE MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
AT THIS POINT...AS THE NIGHT CREW LOADED IN THE 00Z ECMWF. WILL ONLY
BE MAKING MINOR CHANGES TO THE SHORT AND MID TERM FORECASTS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA CONTINUES TO
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. ANCHORAGE SAW ITS
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE FEBRUARY OF 1999. THE SURROUNDING AREA
LOWS RANGED FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE COAST TO -35 INLAND. THE
CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE FORECASTING WHEN THIS PATTERN WILL BREAK
DOWN AND MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE AREA. AT THIS
POINT...EXPECTING MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH MIDWEEK. SEVERAL LOWS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE JET IN THE NPAC BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR
DOMAIN. THIS WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR OVER MAINLAND ALASKA UNTIL
POSSIBLY THURSDAY WHEN THE MODELS HINT AT A DEVELOPING LOW MAKING ITS
WAY TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS WOULD BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND SUBSEQUENTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
AT THE SURFACE. STILL DO NOT SEE ANY GOOD CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE SECOND FORECAST CHALLENGE ARE THE EXTREME WIND CHILLS THROUGH
CHANNELED TERRAIN...FROM THE ALASKA RANGE TO THOMPSON PASS. WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 141 145 AND 131
WHERE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE COMBINING WITH THE SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES
RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS READINGS BELOW -40.

SOUTHWEST...COLD DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. MCGRATH DROPPED TO -54 BELOW WHILE -20S WERE
PREVALENT ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR 155 AND
161 WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED 970S
LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AKPEN. WILL BE CONSIDERING A WIND CHILL
WARNING FOR 155 WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE WHERE -60
WIND CHILLS ARE WITHIN REACH. LIKEWISE FOR THE SOUTHWEST...BEST
CHANCE OF SOME WARMER WEATHER WILL BE MIDWEEK WHEN A NPAC LOW MOVES
NEAR THE AKPEN WHICH COULD SPILL SOME MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...COPIED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION....MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT IN INDICATING A
CHANGE IN THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE BERING/NORTH PACIFIC
AND A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC/WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WILL SET UP A STORM TRACK FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC NORTHWARD TO
THE GULF OF ALASKA. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT PARTICULAR
STORMS...BUT EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND (ESPECIALLY COASTAL AREAS) BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...121 129 130 155 165 170 172 175 176 179 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...121 129 130 138 140 141 150
                                        160 165 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB JAN 09