Gale Warning 5, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 041316
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 4 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-050300-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 974 MB LOW NEAR 54N 147W WILL MOVE ONSHORE NEAR 56N 134W SUN
AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MON NIGHT.
$$

PKZ351-050300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 4 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  
$$

PKZ352-050300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 4 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  
$$

356 
FZAK61 PAFC 042353
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 4 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-051500-
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 980 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 59N 144W TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AS IT WEAKENS TO 998 MB TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ351-051500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 4 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-051500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 4 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 051230
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-060300-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 980 MB LOW NEAR 59N 142W WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWEST NEAR 56N 134W
TUESDAY MORNING AT 997 MB BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE. TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK
1000 MB LOW WILL FORM NEAR 58N 143W AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY.
$$

PKZ351-060300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2009

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-060300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 051422 CCA
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
521 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2009

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-060300-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 980 MB LOW NEAR 59N 142W WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST NEAR 56N 134W
TUESDAY MORNING AT 997 MB BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE. TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK
1000 MB LOW WILL FORM NEAR 58N 143W AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY.
$$

PKZ351-060300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2009

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-060300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 060006
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON JAN 5 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-061500-
400 PM AKST MON JAN 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 989 MB LOW NEAR 58N 142W WEAKENS TO 1002 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-061500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST MON JAN 5 2009

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING N WIND 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-061500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST MON JAN 5 2009

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17
FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A VERY STABLE PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS ALASKA. THE OMEGA BLOCKING
RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA IS BECOMING
PINCHED OFF BY TWO LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOWS...ONE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
AND A SECOND SOUTHEAST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS IS A 170 KT JET FLOWING OUT OF A LARGE UPPER TROF OVER THE
NPAC.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS
SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. A 977 MB IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE JET AND WILL RACE EASTWARD INTO THE GULF
AND MOVE INLAND NEAR JUNEAU SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A 995 MB LOW SOUTH OF
CORDOVA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS.
DIFFERENCES ARISE TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE GFS TRIES TO BRING A 988 MB
LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA. THE MORE LIKELY SOLUTION IS THE
ECMWF WHICH KEEPS THE LOW TRACK SOUTH OF THE CHAIN TOWARD THE AKPEN
THURSDAY NIGHT. WE WILL BE MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
AT THIS POINT...AS THE NIGHT CREW LOADED IN THE 00Z ECMWF. WILL ONLY
BE MAKING MINOR CHANGES TO THE SHORT AND MID TERM FORECASTS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA CONTINUES TO
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. ANCHORAGE SAW ITS
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE FEBRUARY OF 1999. THE SURROUNDING AREA
LOWS RANGED FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE COAST TO -35 INLAND. THE
CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE FORECASTING WHEN THIS PATTERN WILL BREAK
DOWN AND MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE AREA. AT THIS
POINT...EXPECTING MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH MIDWEEK. SEVERAL LOWS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE JET IN THE NPAC BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR
DOMAIN. THIS WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR OVER MAINLAND ALASKA UNTIL
POSSIBLY THURSDAY WHEN THE MODELS HINT AT A DEVELOPING LOW MAKING ITS
WAY TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS WOULD BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND SUBSEQUENTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
AT THE SURFACE. STILL DO NOT SEE ANY GOOD CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE SECOND FORECAST CHALLENGE ARE THE EXTREME WIND CHILLS THROUGH
CHANNELED TERRAIN...FROM THE ALASKA RANGE TO THOMPSON PASS. WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 141 145 AND 131
WHERE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE COMBINING WITH THE SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES
RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS READINGS BELOW -40.

SOUTHWEST...COLD DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. MCGRATH DROPPED TO -54 BELOW WHILE -20S WERE
PREVALENT ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR 155 AND
161 WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED 970S
LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AKPEN. WILL BE CONSIDERING A WIND CHILL
WARNING FOR 155 WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE WHERE -60
WIND CHILLS ARE WITHIN REACH. LIKEWISE FOR THE SOUTHWEST...BEST
CHANCE OF SOME WARMER WEATHER WILL BE MIDWEEK WHEN A NPAC LOW MOVES
NEAR THE AKPEN WHICH COULD SPILL SOME MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...COPIED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION....MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT IN INDICATING A
CHANGE IN THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE BERING/NORTH PACIFIC
AND A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC/WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WILL SET UP A STORM TRACK FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC NORTHWARD TO
THE GULF OF ALASKA. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT PARTICULAR
STORMS...BUT EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND (ESPECIALLY COASTAL AREAS) BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...121 129 130 155 165 170 172 175 176 179 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...121 129 130 138 140 141 150
                                        160 165 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB JAN 09