Red Flag Warning 19, NWS Anchorage, AK

866 
WWAK61 PAFC 050615
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1015 PM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

AKZ141-050715-
/X.CAN.PAFC.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-090805T0700Z/
COPPER RIVER BASIN-
1015 PM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE INCREASING.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER FAR EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA IS RETREATING
INTO CANADA...WHILE THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING IS
IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY LOSING JET SUPPORT AND BECOMING A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW. BENEATH THIS UPPER LOW IS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE IN THE VICINITY OF DUTCH HARBOR. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER
FRONT NEAR KODIAK ISLAND IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE WESTERN
GULF TOWARD THE NORTH GULF COAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS
THE LOW IN THE BERING CROSSES THE AKPEN AND MOVES INTO THE GULF SOME
TIMING ISSUES ARISE BETWEEN THE FASTER TRANSITION OF THE GFS AND THE
SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME THE EC IS THE FAVORED
CHOICE...AND HAS BEEN INCORPORATED INTO THE MIDRANGE AND EXTENDED
FORECASTS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN PROGRESS UP COOK INLET THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE
NOTABLE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WHERE CONTINUED HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE MADE WORSE BY GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE RIDGE
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST INTERACTING WITH A STRENGTHENING THERMAL
TROUGH IN THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE. THUS...WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR TODAY WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.

.SOUTHWEST...WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BERING LOW PUSHES SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA. 40-50 MPH WINDS
ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND STEADY RAIN
WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY THIS EVENING. CLOUDY WEATHER WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERY WEATHER
AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SEE CONTINUED HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE STATIONARY LOW IN THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
MOVE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE GENERAL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
AND PROGRESSIVE. WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...INDIVIDUAL WEATHER
FEATURES WILL BE SMALL AND FAST MOVING...INCREASING THE DIFFICULTY OF
INDIVIDUAL FORECAST ELEMENTS. IN GENERAL...SEASONABLY COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 138
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 141

AMD AUG 09