Gale Warning 540, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 041130
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-050200-
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A WEATHER FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL REACH THE NORTH
GULF COAST BY WED MORNING. A 1012 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 180 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SEWARD WED MORNING AND MOVE TO NEAR SEWARD AT 1013 MB
LATE WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-050200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...WEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 13
FT. RAIN. EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...E WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-050200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS SOUTH
OF CANINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS SOUTH OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-050200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-050200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-050200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15
FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-050200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-050200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-050200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT
BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-050200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

448 
FZAK51 PAFC 042243
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-051400-
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WED. A 1009 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR KODIAK CITY TUE NIGHT
AND DISSIPATE NEAR MONTAGUE ISLAND THU MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-051400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...WEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 
S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. EAST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-051400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT LATE THIS
EVENING. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-051400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-051400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ130-051400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...BARREN ISLAND NORTHWEST...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 
E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. SOUTHEAST OF BARREN
ISLAND...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW THIS EVENING. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-051400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-051400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. 
SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-051400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-051400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2009

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 3 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
ALOFT...RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ALASKA
MAINLAND WITH A DEEP TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE BERING SEA AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. AN UPPER LOW SITTING IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. VARIOUS SHORTWAVES ARE ROTATING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS
WEAKENING...WHILE A LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE
BERING. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
GULF. ANOTHER LOW EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST
OF SHEMYA. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN WHILE MERGING WITH THE LOW NEAR
DUTCH HARBOR.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW MOVING
INTO THE BERING...AS WELL AS THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL. GENERALLY EXPECTING FLOW TO BECOME PROGRESSIVE OVER THE
AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE SLIPPING EASTWARD
INTO CANADA WHILE LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS IN THE BERING. THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE WAS CONSTRUCTED USING THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW RAIN WILL BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION. GUSTY GAP WINDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AROUND THE
BARREN ISLANDS. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL IMPACT KODIAK ISLAND
TONIGHT...SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA TOMORROW.
LIGHTER RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE POSSIBILITY OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED ALONG THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TOMORROW AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY
AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW.

.SOUTHWEST...
CONTINUED COOL AND WET THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER
THE REGION. BULK OF RAIN WILL FALL ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS...AS THE
LOW MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE BERING PUSHES A FRONT INTO SOUTHWEST.
ADDITIONALLY...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
TOMORROW.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AS VARIOUS LOWS IMPACT THE ISLANDS. RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA WILL BE CLEARING OUT OF
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR
DUTCH HARBOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN ISLANDS TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE BERING...BULK OF PRECIP WILL
BE FELT IN THE PRIBILOFS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE MEANDERING AROUND THE
BERING THROUGH MIDWEEK...KEEPING SHOWERS AROUND THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ISLANDS. THE WESTERN ISLANDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AS
BULK OF MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AS FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED AND COOLER
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL TROUGH AND
SHORT WAVE PASSAGES IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL DETAILS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 132 138 160.
FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCH 141.

NRH AUG 09