Red Flag Warning 11, NWS Anchorage, AK

376 
WWAK61 PAFC 241641
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
841 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2009

AKZ141-241745-
/X.CAN.PAFC.FW.W.0011.090525T0000Z-090525T0700Z/
COPPER RIVER BASIN-
841 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING. 

$$

AKZ145-250700-
/X.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0011.090525T0000Z-090525T0700Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
841 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF TALKEETNA...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 PM AKDT THIS EVENING. 

SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF TALKEETNA ALONG
THE ALASKA RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY LITTLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE SO THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIATE HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO DROP LITTLE OR NO RAIN AS THEY DRIFT SOUTH AND
WEST THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

191 
WWAK61 PAFC 250515
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
915 PM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2009


AKZ145-250615-
/X.CAN.PAFC.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-090525T0700Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
915 PM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTH OF TALKEETNA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED IN THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER OCCURRING. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING
WITH A WEAK HIGH OVER NORTHERN ALASKA AND A STRONGER UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE BERING. THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS...THE AK PEN...AND KODIAK ISLAND ARE IN THE
TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE BERING HIGH AND THE GULF LOW...AND
NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE IS THE
RESULT...WITH SOME GALES IN CHANNELED AREAS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE BERING...WHILE THE LOW CENTER SOUTH
OF KODIAK BEGINS TO ROTATE THROUGH THE GULF IN A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH TUESDAY...PINWHEELING AT TIMES WITH SEVERAL OTHER
SMALL LOWS. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL KEEP MOISTURE LADEN EASTERLY FLOW
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CONVECTION...MAINLY NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY AND
MONDAY...AND OVER THE TALKEETNAS...CHUGACH...AND KENAI MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY. OVER SOUTHWEST AK A WEAK FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH A THERMALLY
INDUCED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS AND MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
MONDAY AFTERNOON....WITH WEAKER ACTIVITY TUE AFTERNOON TOWARD THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...AREAS OF MARINE STRATUS AND FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
MUCH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A
WEATHER FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS BEGINNING LATE
SUN...REACHING THE EASTERN ISLANDS ON THU.

FOR SOUTHWEST AK...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM TODAY...OVER THE KUSKOKWIM AND BRISTOL BAY ZONE MON...AND
ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE IN THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE TUE.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY ALONG THE AK RANGE...ON MON
NEAR THE AK RANGE AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS...AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS ON TUE. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ALASKA
RANGE TODAY WILL BE DRY AND A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
ZONES 141 AND 145.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
IN THE WEST...LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHWEST AK WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION TO THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES. SOUTHEAST OF THE AK
RANGE WILL EXPERIENCE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME SHOWERS
THROUGH THU.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 141 145

DS MAY 09