Gale Warning 448, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 241146
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-250200-
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1006 MB LOW 250 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK MAINTAINS STRENGTH AS IT BECOMES
AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN GULF TO YAKUTAT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF
MON NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-250200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-250200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2009

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-250200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-250200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2009

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...EAST WIND 15 KTS. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-250200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-250200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-250200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-250200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-250200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2009

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT SAT MAY 23 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK
ISLAND IS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. THE UPPER LOW IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING ALL OF MAINLAND ALASKA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA IS BUILDING EASTWARD.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS. A 1003 MB LOW IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND.
ELSEWHERE...THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER INTERIOR ALASKA IS CENTERED NORTH
OF THE ALASKA RANGE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN SATISFACTORY AGREEMENT THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES
ARISE CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW COMPLEX IN THE GULF AND THE
HIGH OVER THE BERING SEA. THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WAS CONSTRUCTED
USING THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
STRONG WINDS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG COASTAL AREAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IN THE GULF IMPACTS THE
REGION. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTHWARD WHILE THE
THERMAL TROUGH WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
GRADUALLY RELAX. AS A RESULT...WINDS AND PRECIP WILL BE DIMINISHING
AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY. A MORE TYPICAL SEA BREEZE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TOMORROW AS A RESULT OF THE WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW. THE
THERMAL THROUGH AXIS WILL BE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
MONDAY...ACTING TO ENHANCE INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL...PARTICULARLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS UNDER
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW.

.SOUTHWEST...
PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED THERMAL TROUGH INFLUENCES THE
AREA. MAIN THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
BRISTOL BAY...WESTERN KUSKOKWIM DELTA...AND THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...WHERE INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST.
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE
COAST WILL CONTINUE...WITH PESKY SHOWERS AND STRATUS AFFECTING THE
AKPEN.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE BERING MEANS FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE PRIBILOFS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR WHEREAS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ISLANDS SHOULD
STAY IN THE CLOUDS. A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE WESTERN
ISLANDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STAGNANT AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH THE QUASI STATIONARY LOW COMPLEX IN THE
GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS. THE THERMAL
TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WILL KEEP INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ELEVATED
OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...WITH FOG AND STRATUS CONTINUING OVER THE
BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 111

NRH MAY 09