Hurricane Force Wind Warning 2, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 171311 CCA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 17 2009

CORRECTED ZONE 411

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-180300-
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 981 MB LOW NEAR 48N 173E WILL DEEPEN TO 956 MB NEAR 60N 172E TUE
NIGHT. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS
THROUGH WED.
$$

PKZ411-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 17 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT INCREASING TO 60 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 27 FT
BUILDING TO 33 FT THIS MORNING. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 17 2009

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE 55 KT INCREASING TO 65 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 25 FT BUILDING TO 33 FT THIS MORNING. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 24 FT SUBSIDING TO
17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SW IND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 22 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 17 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO S 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 27 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 17 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 22 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 171935 AAA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1035 AM AKST TUE FEB 17 2009

UPDATED ZONES 411, 412.

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-180300-
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 981 MB LOW NEAR 48N 173E WILL DEEPEN TO 956 MB NEAR 60N 172E TUE
NIGHT. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS
THROUGH WED.
$$

PKZ411-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
1035 AM AKST TUE FEB 17 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 27 FT
BUILDING TO 33 FT THIS MORNING. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
1035 AM AKST TUE FEB 17 2009

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 65 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 25 FT BUILDING TO 33
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 24 FT SUBSIDING TO
17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SW IND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 22 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 17 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO S 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 27 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 17 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE WIND 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 22 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 180011
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 17 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-181500-
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 962 MB LOW NEAR 57N 175E WILL MOVE OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WED
AFTERNOON. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS THROUGH WED.
$$

PKZ411-181500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 17 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ412-181500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 17 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT...DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 32 FT...SUBSIDING TO 24 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-181500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 17 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT...DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
35 FT...SUBSIDING TO 25 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-181500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 17 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT...DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 19 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
335 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE STATE FUELED BY A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND ANOTHER OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. A TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING SEA AHEAD OF WHAT WILL BECOME THE NEW
ANCHOR LOW NEAR KAMCHATKA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.AT THE SURFACE...
A 997 MB SURFACE LOW IS WEAKENING IN THE NORTHWEST GULF. THIS COUPLED
WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL. THE
DEFORMATION ZONE AND SNOW EXTENDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE
AND INTO THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. ANOTHER POTENT SYSTEM SOUTH OF
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS HAS REACHED ITS MAXIMUM STRENGTH AND IS
WEAKENING AS IT HEADS INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF. OUT WEST...AN
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE MID LATITUDES IS FEEDING A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING THE STATE ITS NEXT ROUND OF
WEATHER MID WEEK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

AGAIN...MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE ALL MAJOR FEATURES WELL AND ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. ONE FEATURE THAT THE
MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL ON IS THE SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF. ALL MODELS DEPICTED THIS FEATURE AS AN OPEN TROUGH ALTHOUGH
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CLEARLY SHOWING A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT MID TO
UPPER LEVELS. THIS IS THE MAIN REASON WHY PRECIPITATION IS HEAVIER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL. AFTER THIS
INITIALIZATION HICCUP...NO REASON TO THINK MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING
THE EVOLUTION WELL IN THE SHORT TERM SO WILL BE MAKING ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...
THE BROAD TROUGH OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND WEAKENING LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GULF WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW INLAND AND MODERATE RAIN
AND SNOW ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WHEN THE TROUGH
FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. THE DRYING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH WILL HAPPEN QUICKLY AND BE SHORTLIVED AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. DURING THIS TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND RECENT SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG ALONG COOK
INLET FROM KACHEMAK BAY NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER SUSITNA VALLEY.
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF A FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW AT ALL
LEVELS. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AREA WIDE AS CONFIDENCE BUILDS WITH EACH MODEL RUN. ONE
QUESTION THAT STILL REMAINS IS THE ONSET OF THE SNOW AS MODELS
USUALLY ARE TOO SLOW WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS FORECAST WILL TREND FASTER THAN THE MODELS ARE CALLING FOR SNOW
TO BEGIN BUT WE MAY STILL HAVE TO BUMP THAT UP IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
PACKAGES.

SOUTHWEST...COLD AIR IS ADVECTING SOUTH INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE DELTA WHILE WINDS IN THE
UPPER KUSKO VALLEY WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS TO NEAR NEGATIVE
30 INLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL INITIATE
PRECIPITATION WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND SPREAD INLAND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE
STRONG SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL USHER RELATIVELY WARM AIR INLAND WITH
THIS SYSTEM...CHANGING SNOW TO RAIN IN BRISTOL BAY WHILE THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BEFORE THE WARM AIR
ARRIVES...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AND CONSIDER A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THAT
ZONE.

BEHIND THE SYSTEM...COLD AIR QUICKLY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION
CHANGING ALL PRECIP BACK TO SNOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO
THE EAST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY A PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND.

.ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA FORECAST...
THE FOCUS OUT WEST WILL BE A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS THE
SAME SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING ALL OF THE PRECIP TO SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA LATER IN THE WEEK. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN
FROM 980 MB TO NEAR 960 MB IN 12 HOURS. WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN TO HURRICANE FORCE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
BERING SEA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE WARM AIR TO THE
PRIBILOFS AND THE WESTERN CAPES AND KUSKO DELTA. OTHERWISE...STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE LOW MOVES
TOWARD KAMCHATKA AND SLOWLY WEAKENS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...ZONE 155
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 130 132 150 160 170 171 172 175 176 179
180
         HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...130 138 150 155 160 165 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AB FEB 09