High Wind Watch 1, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
410 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM
BROAD PATTERN. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NEXT TWO FRONTS. MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
TODAY ARE AMOUNTS OF SNOW..TIMING OF CHANGEOVER TO RAIN..AND THE MIX
OF PRECIP IN BETWEEN.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A 960S LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS HAS AN EXTENDED..RAGGEDY FRONTAL BAND STRETCHING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO JUST SOUTH OF THE AK
PENN AND THE SW GULF. ITS ASSOCIATED SNOW IS IMPACTING EVERYWHERE
FROM THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TO BRISTOL BAY AND THE KENAI PENINSULA AND
PWS. THE MOST INTENSE SWATH OF PRECIP IS IN LINE WITH A FEW 500 MB
VORT MAXES IN BRISTOL BAY..AND THE CENTRAL GULF.

BEHIND THIS FIRST FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND
SW AK TODAY AND TONIGHT IS A LOT OF WAA AT 850 MB. THE WARMING AND
THE WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE RIDGING OVER SE AK AND THE WESTERN
US THROUGH WED. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF ON WED AS A
BROAD TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND AND STRETCHES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL BERING AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP
COLDER AIR LOCKED INTO THE NW MAINLAND DOWN THE COAST TO NUNIVAK
ISLAND ANYWHERE WEST OF THE EASTERN BERING SEA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

FOR SW AK AND THE ALEUTIANS...
THE LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE AREA TODAY AND WED WITH MORE WIND AND PRECIP AS A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX DEVELOPS FROM NW AK TO THE AK PENN AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
PRIBILOFS LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPS STAY DOWN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE FLOW OFF THE ICE EDGE WHILE MOISTURE
ADVECTS IN FROM THE SOUTH. SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN
UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

ACROSS THE MAINLAND WEST THERE IS SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTS IN AT 850 MB.
KING SALMON SOUTH SHOULD WARM UP QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY SEE RAIN AND
SNOW MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN. HOWEVER UNDER NORTH SURFACE
WINDS DILLINGHAM MAY SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF FZRA THIS EVENING. MODELS
ARE INDICATING ADVISORY AMOUNTS OF FZRA ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
WED. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL GO WITH ISOLATED AREAS AND STAY AWAY FROM
THE ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO. ACROSS 155 LOOKS LIKE
MOSTLY SNOW WITH POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE COLDER, WINDIER
AREAS FROM NUNIVAK ISLAND NORTH ALONG THE COAST.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY WITH STRONG GAP WINDS THROUGH THE CHUGACH AND ALASKA RANGE. DO
NOT EXPECT HIGH AMOUNTS OF SNOW EXCEPT IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE ALASKA
RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF TALKEETNA AND NORTH OF GLENNALLEN. WILL NEED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR 141 AND 145. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT AND WED FROM
THE KENAI PENINSULA ALL THE WAY UP TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY ESPECIALLY
IN COLD POCKETS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS LIKE SOLDOTNA. OTHERWISE MOST
AREAS WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN
BY WED.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...COOLER..MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE WET AND WINDY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 155 195
MARINE...STORMS 120
         GALES 125 130 132 138 140 150 170 172 175 176 179 180 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 165 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RNW JAN 09