Gale Warning 71, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 141300
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-150300-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEATHER FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF WED NIGHT. A 964 MB LOW WILL BE 250 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND FRI MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-150300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2009

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT EXCEPT SE 45 KT INCREASING
TO 55 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO
18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR THE
COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT SE 40 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-150300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-150300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
55 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING
TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
55 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE IN THE EVENING. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-150300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-150300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14
FT BUILDING TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-150300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-150300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2009

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-150300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-150300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
410 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM
BROAD PATTERN. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NEXT TWO FRONTS. MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
TODAY ARE AMOUNTS OF SNOW..TIMING OF CHANGEOVER TO RAIN..AND THE MIX
OF PRECIP IN BETWEEN.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A 960S LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS HAS AN EXTENDED..RAGGEDY FRONTAL BAND STRETCHING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO JUST SOUTH OF THE AK
PENN AND THE SW GULF. ITS ASSOCIATED SNOW IS IMPACTING EVERYWHERE
FROM THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TO BRISTOL BAY AND THE KENAI PENINSULA AND
PWS. THE MOST INTENSE SWATH OF PRECIP IS IN LINE WITH A FEW 500 MB
VORT MAXES IN BRISTOL BAY..AND THE CENTRAL GULF.

BEHIND THIS FIRST FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND
SW AK TODAY AND TONIGHT IS A LOT OF WAA AT 850 MB. THE WARMING AND
THE WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE RIDGING OVER SE AK AND THE WESTERN
US THROUGH WED. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF ON WED AS A
BROAD TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND AND STRETCHES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL BERING AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP
COLDER AIR LOCKED INTO THE NW MAINLAND DOWN THE COAST TO NUNIVAK
ISLAND ANYWHERE WEST OF THE EASTERN BERING SEA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

FOR SW AK AND THE ALEUTIANS...
THE LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE AREA TODAY AND WED WITH MORE WIND AND PRECIP AS A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX DEVELOPS FROM NW AK TO THE AK PENN AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
PRIBILOFS LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPS STAY DOWN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE FLOW OFF THE ICE EDGE WHILE MOISTURE
ADVECTS IN FROM THE SOUTH. SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN
UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

ACROSS THE MAINLAND WEST THERE IS SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTS IN AT 850 MB.
KING SALMON SOUTH SHOULD WARM UP QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY SEE RAIN AND
SNOW MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN. HOWEVER UNDER NORTH SURFACE
WINDS DILLINGHAM MAY SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF FZRA THIS EVENING. MODELS
ARE INDICATING ADVISORY AMOUNTS OF FZRA ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
WED. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL GO WITH ISOLATED AREAS AND STAY AWAY FROM
THE ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO. ACROSS 155 LOOKS LIKE
MOSTLY SNOW WITH POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE COLDER, WINDIER
AREAS FROM NUNIVAK ISLAND NORTH ALONG THE COAST.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY WITH STRONG GAP WINDS THROUGH THE CHUGACH AND ALASKA RANGE. DO
NOT EXPECT HIGH AMOUNTS OF SNOW EXCEPT IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE ALASKA
RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF TALKEETNA AND NORTH OF GLENNALLEN. WILL NEED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR 141 AND 145. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT AND WED FROM
THE KENAI PENINSULA ALL THE WAY UP TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY ESPECIALLY
IN COLD POCKETS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS LIKE SOLDOTNA. OTHERWISE MOST
AREAS WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN
BY WED.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...COOLER..MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE WET AND WINDY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 155 195
MARINE...STORMS 120
         GALES 125 130 132 138 140 150 170 172 175 176 179 180 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 165 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RNW JAN 09