Gale Warning 936, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 010725 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1020 PM AKST MON NOV 30 2009

UPDATED ZONES 129 141

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-011500-
400 PM AKST MON NOV 30 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TUE. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST TUE NIGHT AND INTO WED.
$$

PKZ120-011500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST MON NOV 30 2009

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR
THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR THE
COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-011500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST MON NOV 30 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT...SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-011500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST MON NOV 30 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-011500-
PASSAGE CANAL
1020 PM AKST MON NOV 30 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-011500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST MON NOV 30 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT DURING THE LATE EVENING.
SEAS 19 FT EXCEPT 9 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT EXCEPT 7 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-011500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST MON NOV 30 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-011500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST MON NOV 30 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-011500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST MON NOV 30 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
7 FT EXCEPT 2 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-011500-
KACHEMAK BAY
1020 PM AKST MON NOV 30 2009

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 011236
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-020300-
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL GULF TO SOUTHEAST
ALASKA BY TUE NIGHT. A 981 MB LOW 75 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT HEIDEN TUE
NIGHT MOVES INLAND NEAR KING SALMON EARLY WED AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-020300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE
WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-020300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT.. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-020300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS S OF SEAL
ISLAND. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-020300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-020300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-020300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2009

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-020300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2009

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-020300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2009

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-020300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST MON NOV 30 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE HOLDING TOGETHER WELL WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN. THE BIG ISSUE BETWEEN THEM HAS TO DO WITH HOW MUCH WARM AIR
MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THE NAM IS COLDER THAN THE GFS OR
ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WHICH ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THEIR SHORT TERM
TEMPERATURE PROFILES. WHERE THIS MAY IMPACT THE FORECASTS IS WHEN AN
AREA MY TURN TO RAIN OR IF IT DOES AT ALL. THE FORECASTS HAVE BEEN
MORE WEIGHTED TO THE WARMER GFS/ECMWF TEMPERATURES. THIS COULD CAUSE
MORE SNOWFALL OVER A GREATER AREA IF IT TURNS OUT THE NAM IS MORE
CORRECT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE MAJOR STORM CENTERS AROUND THE LARGE
LOW IN THE BERING SEA AND THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE LOW
CENTER IS NOW VERTICALLY STACKED AND THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY IS
RIDING THE JET STREAM ALONG THE FRONT FROM ABOUT 40N 160W RIGHT INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THEN NORTHWEST.
THERE IS A TRIPLE POINT ON THE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF KODIAK WITH
THE WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE COOK INLET REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
JET STREAM WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO CANADA BY WEDNESDAY BUT THEN
REDEVELOP TO THE WEST OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO BRISTOL BAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE LOCATION OF THE TRIPLE POINT PUTS THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM JUST UPSTREAM FROM MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
AND IS WHY IT IS BELIEVED THAT THE SNOW WILL TURN TO RAIN IN MOST OF
THE COASTAL AREAS. AS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM TURNS THE SNOW TO
RAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE
GRADIENT WILL EASE FROM THE WEST TO EAST AND THEN LINGER ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EAST...CAUSING THE BARRIER
JET TO REMAIN ALONG THE COAST EAST OF MONTAGUE ISLAND INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.
THE OCCLUDED PORTION OF THE FRONT HAS NOW MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND HAS ALLOWED THE WINDS TO
DIMINISH...ENDING THE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THERE. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS REGION WHERE THE FRONT HAS STALLED AND
WILL KEEP BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING
SEA LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM SOUTHEAST
ALASKA INTO THE EASTERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THIS WILL
PRODUCE STRONG AND WARM SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA REGION IN THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 131 195.
         WINTER STORM WARNING 125 145.
         HIGH WIND WARNING 101 135.
MARINE...GALE 121 129 155 172 175 176 179 180 185.
         STORM 120 125 130.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NOV 09