Gale Warning 932, NWS Anchorage, AK

068 
FZAK62 PAFC 272353
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 27 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-281500-
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 27 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 970 MB GALE FORCE LOW NEAR 49N 162W WILL MOVE TO 51N 165W 
MON AFTERNOON AT 977 MB. THE LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN TO 985 MB 
AS IT MOVES TO 54N 167W TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-281500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 27 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. SNOW.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-281500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 27 2009

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-281500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 27 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-281500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 27 2009

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
130 PM AKST SAT DEC 26 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
WHILE THE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED...THERE IS A TRANSITION
TAKING PLACE WHILE THE ENERGY IS BEING DISPLACED FROM ONE LOW TO THE
NEXT ANCHOR LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. MEANWHILE...A COLD CORE UPPER
LOW IS MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
ON ITS WAY TO EASTERN SIBERIA. MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
SPREAD RAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE DOWNSLOPE EFFECT IS JUST WEAK
ENOUGH THAT SOME SHOWERS HAVE MAINTAINED ON THE LEE SIDE OF MOUNTAIN
RANGES OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THIS MORNING. STILL...PRECIPITATION HAS
BEEN LIGHT INLAND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE FIRST 60 HOURS ARE
MINOR. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS REVOLVE AROUND THE NEW DEVELOPING
ANCHOR LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE NAM AND GFS...ALTHOUGH IN AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER...HAVE BEEN
VERY INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. MUCH PREFER THE ECMWF AND UKMET
SOLUTIONS THAT TRACKS THE LOW A BIT FURTHER WEST...CONSISTENT WITH A
STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE UPSTREAM ALONG THE ALASKA PANHANDLE
AND ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAKING IT INLAND TODAY. COLD AIR
REMAINS TRAPPED AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS INLAND...SPECIFICALLY THE
SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE REMAINS CONDUCIVE TO
FREEZING RAIN SO HAVE ISSUED AN ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IT
APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED OVER MOST OF THE
VALLEY...ALTHOUGH SOME ECHOES ARE AGAIN SHOWING UP NEAR BIG LAKE
WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HOVERING RIGHT NEAR FREEZING IN THAT
AREA. IT MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND PUTS AN END TO THE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS
THIS HAPPENS...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BRIEFLY SUNDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY LEADING TO A PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE THE RIDGE CAN
TAKE OVER ON MONDAY. AT THAT POINT...THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT ANCHOR LOW WILL START AFFECTING KODIAK ISLAND. THE JET WILL
BECOME ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPROACHING
OCCLUSION WHICH COULD LEAD TO ENHANCED SUBTROPICAL FETCH INTO THE
ISLAND. WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH KODIAK PRETTY
RAPIDLY...THE PREFERRED ECMWF SOLUTION STALLS THIS FEATURE NEAR
KODIAK A BIT LONGER SO WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER THE FLOODING POTENTIAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHWEST INTERIOR...BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING.
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION. AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH IMPULSES
CROSSING THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH TIME. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES...AND GUSTY GAP WINDS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIAN CHAIN...CURRENTLY IN A LULL BETWEEN STORMS AS THE
OLD ANCHOR LOW WEAKENS AND THE NEXT ONE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC. GALE FORCE WINDS AND STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
WINDS ARE BROAD BRUSHED BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME AS MODEL UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES...BUT BELIEVE A BROAD LOW WILL PERSIST IN THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN BERING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130 132 138 150 155.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB DEC 09