Gale Warning 1005, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
130 PM AKST SAT DEC 26 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
WHILE THE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED...THERE IS A TRANSITION
TAKING PLACE WHILE THE ENERGY IS BEING DISPLACED FROM ONE LOW TO THE
NEXT ANCHOR LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. MEANWHILE...A COLD CORE UPPER
LOW IS MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
ON ITS WAY TO EASTERN SIBERIA. MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
SPREAD RAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE DOWNSLOPE EFFECT IS JUST WEAK
ENOUGH THAT SOME SHOWERS HAVE MAINTAINED ON THE LEE SIDE OF MOUNTAIN
RANGES OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THIS MORNING. STILL...PRECIPITATION HAS
BEEN LIGHT INLAND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE FIRST 60 HOURS ARE
MINOR. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS REVOLVE AROUND THE NEW DEVELOPING
ANCHOR LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE NAM AND GFS...ALTHOUGH IN AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER...HAVE BEEN
VERY INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. MUCH PREFER THE ECMWF AND UKMET
SOLUTIONS THAT TRACKS THE LOW A BIT FURTHER WEST...CONSISTENT WITH A
STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE UPSTREAM ALONG THE ALASKA PANHANDLE
AND ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAKING IT INLAND TODAY. COLD AIR
REMAINS TRAPPED AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS INLAND...SPECIFICALLY THE
SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE REMAINS CONDUCIVE TO
FREEZING RAIN SO HAVE ISSUED AN ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IT
APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED OVER MOST OF THE
VALLEY...ALTHOUGH SOME ECHOES ARE AGAIN SHOWING UP NEAR BIG LAKE
WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HOVERING RIGHT NEAR FREEZING IN THAT
AREA. IT MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND PUTS AN END TO THE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS
THIS HAPPENS...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BRIEFLY SUNDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY LEADING TO A PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE THE RIDGE CAN
TAKE OVER ON MONDAY. AT THAT POINT...THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT ANCHOR LOW WILL START AFFECTING KODIAK ISLAND. THE JET WILL
BECOME ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPROACHING
OCCLUSION WHICH COULD LEAD TO ENHANCED SUBTROPICAL FETCH INTO THE
ISLAND. WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH KODIAK PRETTY
RAPIDLY...THE PREFERRED ECMWF SOLUTION STALLS THIS FEATURE NEAR
KODIAK A BIT LONGER SO WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER THE FLOODING POTENTIAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHWEST INTERIOR...BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING.
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION. AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH IMPULSES
CROSSING THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH TIME. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES...AND GUSTY GAP WINDS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIAN CHAIN...CURRENTLY IN A LULL BETWEEN STORMS AS THE
OLD ANCHOR LOW WEAKENS AND THE NEXT ONE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC. GALE FORCE WINDS AND STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
WINDS ARE BROAD BRUSHED BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME AS MODEL UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES...BUT BELIEVE A BROAD LOW WILL PERSIST IN THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN BERING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130 132 138 150 155.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB DEC 09