Gale Warning 9, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 081214
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST THU JAN 8 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-090300-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL DISSIPATE THU
EVENING. A DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE NEAR 52N 158W AT
993 MB THU NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ON FRI. A 980 MB LOW WILL FORM THU
NIGHT NEAR 55N 150W AND WILL WEAKEN TO 999 MB NEAR 58N 141W FRI
NIGHT.
$$

PKZ351-090300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST THU JAN 8 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-090300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST THU JAN 8 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 090058
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU JAN 8 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-091500-
400 PM AKST THU JAN 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A  978 MB LOW NEAR 55N 152W WILL MOVE TO 58N 143W BY FRI MORNING AND
WEAKEN TO 982 MB. THIS LOW WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND NEAR
CAPE FAIRWEATHER SAT MORNING. ANOTHER LOW AT 988 MB WILL BE NEAR 54N
161W SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-091500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST THU JAN 8 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT E OF 147W.
SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-091500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST THU JAN 8 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW LATE. SEAS 11 TO 20 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO 18
FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 091214
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 9 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-100300-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 983 MB LOW NEAR 58N 145W WEAKENS TO 1009 MB FRI NIGHT AS IT MOVES
INLAND NEAR 59N 137W. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
$$

PKZ351-100300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 9 2009

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-100300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 9 2009

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKST WED JAN 7 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS REGARDING THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ARISE AFTERWARDS. MODEL DISAGREEMENT PERTAINS MAINLY TO
THE STRENGTH...TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GULF THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS
AFTERNOON IS BASED ON THE ECMWF...AS IT HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT
PERFORMER RECENTLY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER INTERIOR ALASKA CONTINUES TO SUPPLY COLD
AIR OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. A TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS
WEAKENING...GRADUALLY RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

AT THE UPPER LEVELS A LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY...WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL ALASKA. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SOUTHCENTRAL...
CLEAR...COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND COPPER RIVER BASIN REMAIN
IN THE NEGATIVE 20 TO 50 RANGE. GIVEN SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES ONLY
LIGHT WINDS ARE NEEDED TO DROP WIND CHILLS BELOW -40 DEGREES.
ACCORDINGLY...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
THOMPSON PASS. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT KODIAK BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE REST OF THE GULF
COAST WILL BE ON THE UPSWING FRIDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING LOW. INLAND AREAS WILL ALSO SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE
COLD BY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.

.SOUTHWEST...
BRISK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. COLD TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH
MODERATE WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 50
DEGREES BELOW ZERO. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ALASKA
PENINSULA...AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. OTHERWISE EXPECT
THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO REMAIN DRY AND COLD AS WE
APPROACH THE WEEKEND.

.ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
COLD NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE CHAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. INCREASED COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW PASSES TO THE
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND MODERATE WINDS
PREVAILING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS LOW AS
THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF UPCOMING SYSTEMS. OVERALL
EXPECT STORM SYSTEMS TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT
IN INCREASED MOISTURE AND WARMING ALONG COASTAL AREAS...EVENTUALLY
SPREADING FURTHER INLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...

NRH/AB JAN 09