Gale Warning 10, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 090012
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU JAN 8 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-091500-
400 PM AKST THU JAN 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A  978 MB LOW NEAR 55N 152W WILL MOVE TO 58N 143W BY FRI MORNING AND
WEAKEN TO 982 MB. THIS LOW WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND NEAR
CAPE FAIRWEATHER SAT MORNING. ANOTHER LOW AT 988 MB WILL BE NEAR 54N
161W SAT AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ411-091500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST THU JAN 8 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF
56N...OTHERWISE FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
NORTH OF 56N...OTHERWISE FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-091500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST THU JAN 8 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-091500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST THU JAN 8 2009

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-091500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST THU JAN 8 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
530 PM AKST WED JAN 7 2009

CORRECTED WARNING TABLE

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS REGARDING THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ARISE AFTERWARDS. MODEL DISAGREEMENT PERTAINS MAINLY TO
THE STRENGTH...TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GULF THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS
AFTERNOON IS BASED ON THE ECMWF...AS IT HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT
PERFORMER RECENTLY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER INTERIOR ALASKA CONTINUES TO SUPPLY COLD
AIR OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. A TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS
WEAKENING...GRADUALLY RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

AT THE UPPER LEVELS A LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY...WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL ALASKA. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SOUTHCENTRAL...
CLEAR...COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND COPPER RIVER BASIN REMAIN
IN THE NEGATIVE 20 TO 50 RANGE. GIVEN SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES ONLY
LIGHT WINDS ARE NEEDED TO DROP WIND CHILLS BELOW -40 DEGREES.
ACCORDINGLY...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
THOMPSON PASS. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT KODIAK BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE REST OF THE GULF
COAST WILL BE ON THE UPSWING FRIDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING LOW. INLAND AREAS WILL ALSO SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE
COLD BY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.

.SOUTHWEST...
BRISK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. COLD TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH
MODERATE WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 50
DEGREES BELOW ZERO. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ALASKA
PENINSULA...AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. OTHERWISE EXPECT
THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO REMAIN DRY AND COLD AS WE
APPROACH THE WEEKEND.

.ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
COLD NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE CHAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. INCREASED COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW PASSES TO THE
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND MODERATE WINDS
PREVAILING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS LOW AS
THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF UPCOMING SYSTEMS. OVERALL
EXPECT STORM SYSTEMS TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT
IN INCREASED MOISTURE AND WARMING ALONG COASTAL AREAS...EVENTUALLY
SPREADING FURTHER INLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 138 150 155 170 176 179
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 125 129 130 138 140 141 150 160 165
                              179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NRH/AB JAN 09