Gale Warning 868, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 161253
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-170300-
400 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A GALE FORCE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS
MONDAY WILL STALL AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE CENTRAL BERING TO
EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON TUESDAY. A 995 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR DUTCH HARBOR TUESDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH INTO
THE NORTH PACIFIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG 970 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO
ABOUT 350 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA ON WEDNESDAY.

$$

PKZ150-170300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 14
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
14 FT SUBSIDING. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 11
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
11 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-170300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 15
FT SUBSIDING. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING. 
.TUE...W OF SAND POINT...N WIND 20 KT. E OF SAND POINT...VARIABLE
WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER
GUSTS OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-170300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT SUBSIDING. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-170300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT SUBSIDING. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE WIND 10 KT W OF COLD BAY
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-170300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
  
$$

PKZ170-170300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT BERING SIDE...11 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT
BERING SIDE...8 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN.
.TUE...N AND E OF UNALASKA ISLAND...SE 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S AND W OF
UNALASKA ISLAND...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-170300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-170300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W OF SEGUAM ISLAND...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. E OF SEGUAM
ISLAND...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT
SUBSIDING TO 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 35 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-170300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 60 KT. SEAS 38 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 38 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-170300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 60 KT. SEAS 37 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 34 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-170300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT...EXCEPT NE WIND 15 KT E OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT NE WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT N WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 11 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-170300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 170013
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-171500-
400 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 986 MB LOW 250 NM NORTHWEST OF ATTU DISSIPATES WED MORNING WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN POSITION. A WEATHER FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUE MORNING. A 964 MB LOW 350 NM
WEST OF ATTU LATE WED MORNING MOVES TO 150 NM NORTH OF ATTU THU
MORNING AT 950 MB.

$$

PKZ150-171500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES DIMINISHING TO GUSTS TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 10
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-171500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-171500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-171500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO 10 KT FROM COLD BAY W 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-171500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-171500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 
FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...S AND W OF UNALASKA ISLAND...W WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. N AND E OF UNALASKA ISLAND...SE WIND 25 KT 
BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-171500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT...DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE
10 KT BY MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 
FT. SNOW.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-171500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 50
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...W WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 33 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-171500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 15 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 60 KT. SEAS 41 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 41 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-171500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 60 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 60 KT. SEAS 43 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 39 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-171500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT...EXCEPT NE WIND 15 KT E OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT NE 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-171500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
107 PM AKST SUN NOV 15 2009

CORRECTED TYPO

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...DEEP COLD TROUGH IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE GULF WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING. THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IS PROGRESSING
EASTWARD VERY SLOWLY...MORE LIKE A DRIFT. SHORT-WAVES EMBEDDED IN
FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH...SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BERING...EAST INTO
THE GULF...AND THEN NORTH INTO EASTERN SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ARE
COMBINING WITH COLD ADVECTION TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...SHORT-TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH POSITION OF SURFACE LOWS OVER THE GULF. HOWEVER...BOTTOM
LINE IS TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ARCTIC AIR MOVING FROM
NORTH INTO GULF WILL PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY GAP WINDS.
THEREFORE...CHANGES WILL BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THESE LOCALIZED
WINDS AND SYNOPTIC FORECAST WILL BE LEFT AS IS. OUT WEST...MODELS
ARE INCONSISTENT IN POSITIONING OF FRONT AS IT STALLS OUT
TUESDAY...AND DISAGREE ON TRACK OF LOWS ALONG THIS FRONT. WILL
TREND FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...IN LINE WITH MODEL TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...AS IN THE EAST WILL STICK PRIMARILY WITH EXISTING
SHORT-TERM FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SOUTHERN END OF TROUGH WILL SWING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUESDAY...RESULTING IN COLD ADVECTION FROM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOWS WILL TRACK NORTHWARD UP THE EAST SIDE OF
THE TROUGH INTO THE EAST TO CENTRAL GULF...HELPING TO TIGHTEN UP
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRODUCE STRONG GAP WINDS ALONG
THE GULF COASTAL AREA. SO...WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THE
BOARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SAME
GENERAL AREA THAT THEY ARE OCCURRING RIGHT NOW...ACROSS THE GULF
AND NORTHWARD TO EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN. THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL REMAIN DRY AND COLD. THIS
PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AT WHICH TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL OUT TO THE EAST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL REMAIN IN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE ON NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE
ARCTIC AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. COLD ADVECTION SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AND ALONG
THE ALASKA PENINSULA WHILE THE REST OF SOUTHWEST REMAINS COLD AND
DRY UNDER OFFSHORE FLOW.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC AND
GULF AND UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION

OF THE RIDGE WILL THEN ALLOW A FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER THE
SEA OF OKHOTSK TO MOVE ACROSS THE BERING. THE UPPER JET WILL DRIVE
RIGHT THROUGH THE BASE OF THE RIDGE...HELPING TO ELONGATE AND STALL
THE FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL BERING TO EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY.
MODELS ALSO INDICATE A COUPLE LOWS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...BUT
DISAGREE ON THE TRACK OF THESE. FORTUNATELY THE FAST FLOW WILL KEEP
ANY OF THESE FROM DEVELOPING INTO ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. WARM AIR
WITH THE FRONT WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO RAIN ALONG THE ALEUTIANS
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE BERING SEA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED...WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN MAINLAND AND A MAJOR SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING
SEA MID WEEK AND THEN TRACKING EASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF LATE NEXT
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
THE EXACT STRENGTH OR TRACK OF THIS LOW...BUT STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE LIKELY AS IT MOVES INTO THE BERING...AND THERE IS A VERY GOOD
CHANCE SNOW WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND BY WEEKS END.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 155.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...130 132 150 155 165 170 171 172 175 176 179.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...121 130 132 138 150 160 165
                                        179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB NOV 09