Gale Warning 800, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 170013
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-171500-
400 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 986 MB LOW AT 57N 168E DISSIPATES WED MORNING WITH LITTLE CHANGE 
IN POSITION. A WEATHER FRONT IN THE CENTRAL BERING MOVES OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS LATE TUE MORNING.  A 964 MB LOW AT 50N 163E LATE
WED MORNING MOVES TO 56N 172E THU MORNING AT 950 MB.

$$

PKZ411-171500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N OF 57N...SE WIND 35 KT. S OF 57N...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N OF 57N...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. S OF 57N...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...N OF 57N...E WIND 25 KT. S OF 57N...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS
13 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 34 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 33 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-171500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT...STRONGEST W. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 12 FT...HIGHEST W. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 13 FT...HIGHEST W. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 33 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-171500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT...BECOMING W 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 15 KT E OF 174W. SEAS 10 TO 15
FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 34 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 36 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-171500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 
11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW DEVELOPING. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 171247
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-180300-
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 990 MB LOW AT 57N 170E WEAKENS TUESDAY AND DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN POSITION. A WEATHER FRONT DRAPED
THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS ALSO WEAKENS AND
DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY MORNING. A STRONG 955 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 52N
165E WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TO NEAR 56N 173E AT 950 MB THURSDAY
MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N OF 57N...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S OF 57N...SW
WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N OF 57N...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. S OF 57N...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 TO 60 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 22 FT. 
.THU...N OF 56N...E WIND 30 TO 50 KT. S OF 56N...W WIND 35 TO 55 KT.
SEAS 35 FT. 
.FRI...N OF 56N...NE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. S OF 56N...W WIND 40 TO 55 KT.
SEAS 36 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 13 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS
W. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 15 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS W. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT E
WIND 15 KT E OF 173W. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS W.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 60 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 23 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 32 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT...EXCEPT E 20 KT N OF 55N AND E OF 174W
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. HIGHEST SEAS S AND W. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT N OF 54N AND E OF
177W. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 25 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 60 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 33 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 37 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. HIGHEST SEAS S. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. HIGHEST SEAS S. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 20 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HIGHEST WINDS E. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE TO SE WIND 20 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

176 
FZAK62 PAFC 172344
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-181500-
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A WEATHER FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. A 998 MB LOW NEAR 57N 171E WILL DRIFT WEST
TONIGHT NEAR 56N 166E AND DISSIPATE. WEDNESDAY MORNING...A STRONG
NORTH PACIFIC LOW AT 960 MB NEAR 49N 161E WILL MOVE TO NEAR 57N 171E
AT 950 MB THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-181500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N OF 57N...E WIND 30 KT. S OF 57N...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 
18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 33 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 38 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 36 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-181500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS W. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS W. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...SE WIND 55 KT BECOMING SW 40 FT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 32 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-181500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W OF 174W AND S OF 55N...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 35 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 36 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-181500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 15 TO 35 KT...STRONGEST E. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT...BECOMING SE 30 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT W OF 169W . SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
107 PM AKST SUN NOV 15 2009

CORRECTED TYPO

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...DEEP COLD TROUGH IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE GULF WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING. THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IS PROGRESSING
EASTWARD VERY SLOWLY...MORE LIKE A DRIFT. SHORT-WAVES EMBEDDED IN
FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH...SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BERING...EAST INTO
THE GULF...AND THEN NORTH INTO EASTERN SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ARE
COMBINING WITH COLD ADVECTION TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...SHORT-TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH POSITION OF SURFACE LOWS OVER THE GULF. HOWEVER...BOTTOM
LINE IS TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ARCTIC AIR MOVING FROM
NORTH INTO GULF WILL PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY GAP WINDS.
THEREFORE...CHANGES WILL BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THESE LOCALIZED
WINDS AND SYNOPTIC FORECAST WILL BE LEFT AS IS. OUT WEST...MODELS
ARE INCONSISTENT IN POSITIONING OF FRONT AS IT STALLS OUT
TUESDAY...AND DISAGREE ON TRACK OF LOWS ALONG THIS FRONT. WILL
TREND FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...IN LINE WITH MODEL TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...AS IN THE EAST WILL STICK PRIMARILY WITH EXISTING
SHORT-TERM FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SOUTHERN END OF TROUGH WILL SWING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUESDAY...RESULTING IN COLD ADVECTION FROM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOWS WILL TRACK NORTHWARD UP THE EAST SIDE OF
THE TROUGH INTO THE EAST TO CENTRAL GULF...HELPING TO TIGHTEN UP
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRODUCE STRONG GAP WINDS ALONG
THE GULF COASTAL AREA. SO...WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THE
BOARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SAME
GENERAL AREA THAT THEY ARE OCCURRING RIGHT NOW...ACROSS THE GULF
AND NORTHWARD TO EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN. THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL REMAIN DRY AND COLD. THIS
PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AT WHICH TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL OUT TO THE EAST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL REMAIN IN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE ON NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE
ARCTIC AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. COLD ADVECTION SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AND ALONG
THE ALASKA PENINSULA WHILE THE REST OF SOUTHWEST REMAINS COLD AND
DRY UNDER OFFSHORE FLOW.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC AND
GULF AND UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION

OF THE RIDGE WILL THEN ALLOW A FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER THE
SEA OF OKHOTSK TO MOVE ACROSS THE BERING. THE UPPER JET WILL DRIVE
RIGHT THROUGH THE BASE OF THE RIDGE...HELPING TO ELONGATE AND STALL
THE FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL BERING TO EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY.
MODELS ALSO INDICATE A COUPLE LOWS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...BUT
DISAGREE ON THE TRACK OF THESE. FORTUNATELY THE FAST FLOW WILL KEEP
ANY OF THESE FROM DEVELOPING INTO ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. WARM AIR
WITH THE FRONT WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO RAIN ALONG THE ALEUTIANS
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE BERING SEA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED...WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN MAINLAND AND A MAJOR SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING
SEA MID WEEK AND THEN TRACKING EASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF LATE NEXT
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
THE EXACT STRENGTH OR TRACK OF THIS LOW...BUT STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE LIKELY AS IT MOVES INTO THE BERING...AND THERE IS A VERY GOOD
CHANCE SNOW WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND BY WEEKS END.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 155.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...130 132 150 155 165 170 171 172 175 176 179.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...121 130 132 138 150 160 165
                                        179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB NOV 09