Gale Warning 859, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1205 PM AKST THU NOV 12 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...12Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT-TERM WITH EXCEPTION OF WEAK LOW/TROUGH THAT
MOVES INTO NORTHWESTERN GULF FRIDAY MORNING.  GFS PRODUCES A 981 CUT
OFF LOW BY 18Z WHILE NAM GENERATES AN ELONGATED LOW WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE AROUND 986 MB. A BLEND OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS WOULD BE A
REASONABLE COMPROMISE

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...STRONG ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER TROP WITH
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE BERING ON SAT MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF
LATER THAT NIGHT. HENCE THERE IS GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR MAJOR
DEVELOPMENT OF GULF LOW ON SAT. PLENTY OF COLD AIR MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD IN BERING INTO NORTH PACIFIC ON FRI AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...WITH SOME TYPE OF LOW/TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
NORTHWESTERN GULF FRI AND COLD AIR OVER INTERIOR EXPECT MODERATE
NORTH WINDS IN SOUTHCENTRAL.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SAT MORNING
DEEP LOW IN NORTHERN GULF IN POSITION ALTHOUGH GFS IS 8 TO 10 MB
LOWER...IN ANY CASE SNOW ACROSS COASTAL ZONES WITH SOME MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTH WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM ON SAT. PLENTY OF SNOW
AND WIND FOR PWS EASTWARD ON SAT. VERY STRONG WINDS IN THOMPSON PASS
ON SAT WITH BLOWING SNOW.

VARIABLE CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.

NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS.  WITH POLAR FRONT
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FRIDAY MORNING OVER ALEUTIANS WILL GENERATE
STRONG WINDS OVER EASTERN ALEUTIANS FRI...HENCE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN TIP OF AK PEN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...RIDGE OVER BERING BUILDS WITH DEEP TROUGH IN
GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MAIN ISSUE WILL BE COLD TEMPS AND NORTHERLY
DRAINAGE WINDS THROUGH GAPS. A WEATHER FRONT CAN BE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS EARLY MON.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR 185 WILL PROBABLY BECOME HWW
MARINE...MANY STORMS AND GALES- SEE MARINE PACKAGE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP NOV 09