Storm Warning 232, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 131557 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
650 AM AKST FRI NOV 13 2009

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS FOR COASTAL FORMAT

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-140300-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR MONTAGUE ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A 980 MB LOW NEAR SAND POINT WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TO
50 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN
MOVE ASHORE NEAR CAPE SUCKLING MIDDAY SATURDAY. A BROAD TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE GULF THROUGH SUNDAY. 

$$

PKZ120-140300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 13 2009

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. EXCEPT E WIND 25 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15
FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-140300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 13 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-140300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 13 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT SEAS 8 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-140300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 13 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO W 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-140300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 13 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE WIND 30 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 11
FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 50 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 15
FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-140300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 13 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 55 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 19 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT.RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-140300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 13 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-140300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 13 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT N WIND 15 KT NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT
EXCEPT 5 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT EXCEPT W 30 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 11 FT
EXCEPT 6 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-140300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 13 2009

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 140036
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 13 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-141500-
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 974 MB ELONGATED LOW CENTERED 150 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY MOVES TO
30 NM SOUTHEAST OF KAYAK ISLAND SAT MORNING AT 949 MB AND THEN MOVES
ONSHORE NEAR ICY BAY LATE SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ120-141500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 13 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT E
WIND 40 KT ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND IN THE EVENING. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13
FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-141500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 13 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-141500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 13 2009

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
7 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-141500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 13 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-141500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 13 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT NW
45 KT E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT...EXCEPT 6
FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS. 
.SAT...W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-141500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 13 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 45 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS 16
FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-141500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 13 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF
BAYS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS. SEAS 6 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-141500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 13 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NW 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT
EXCEPT 4 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS 6 FT EXCEPT 2 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SOUTH
OF KALGIN ISLAND.  
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-141500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 13 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1205 PM AKST THU NOV 12 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...12Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT-TERM WITH EXCEPTION OF WEAK LOW/TROUGH THAT
MOVES INTO NORTHWESTERN GULF FRIDAY MORNING.  GFS PRODUCES A 981 CUT
OFF LOW BY 18Z WHILE NAM GENERATES AN ELONGATED LOW WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE AROUND 986 MB. A BLEND OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS WOULD BE A
REASONABLE COMPROMISE

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...STRONG ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER TROP WITH
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE BERING ON SAT MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF
LATER THAT NIGHT. HENCE THERE IS GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR MAJOR
DEVELOPMENT OF GULF LOW ON SAT. PLENTY OF COLD AIR MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD IN BERING INTO NORTH PACIFIC ON FRI AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...WITH SOME TYPE OF LOW/TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
NORTHWESTERN GULF FRI AND COLD AIR OVER INTERIOR EXPECT MODERATE
NORTH WINDS IN SOUTHCENTRAL.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SAT MORNING
DEEP LOW IN NORTHERN GULF IN POSITION ALTHOUGH GFS IS 8 TO 10 MB
LOWER...IN ANY CASE SNOW ACROSS COASTAL ZONES WITH SOME MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTH WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM ON SAT. PLENTY OF SNOW
AND WIND FOR PWS EASTWARD ON SAT. VERY STRONG WINDS IN THOMPSON PASS
ON SAT WITH BLOWING SNOW.

VARIABLE CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.

NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS.  WITH POLAR FRONT
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FRIDAY MORNING OVER ALEUTIANS WILL GENERATE
STRONG WINDS OVER EASTERN ALEUTIANS FRI...HENCE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN TIP OF AK PEN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...RIDGE OVER BERING BUILDS WITH DEEP TROUGH IN
GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MAIN ISSUE WILL BE COLD TEMPS AND NORTHERLY
DRAINAGE WINDS THROUGH GAPS. A WEATHER FRONT CAN BE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS EARLY MON.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR 185 WILL PROBABLY BECOME HWW
MARINE...MANY STORMS AND GALES- SEE MARINE PACKAGE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP NOV 09