Gale Warning 762, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 270021 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 26 2009

UPDATED 120 121 129 140 141

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-271400-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 26 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 989 MB LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO 280 NM SOUTH OF
YAKUTAT AND STRENGTHEN TO 977 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-271400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
410 PM AKDT MON OCT 26 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-271400-
RESURRECTION BAY
410 PM AKDT MON OCT 26 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.  

$$

PKZ125-271400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 26 2009

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-271400-
PASSAGE CANAL
410 PM AKDT MON OCT 26 2009

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. GUST TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. WIND BECOMING
VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 

$$

PKZ130-271400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 26 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
..FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-271400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 26 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-271400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 26 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND 
PASSES. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-271400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
410 PM AKDT MON OCT 26 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT EXCEPT SW 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 4 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT EXCEPT 3 FT N OF
KALGIN ISLAND. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-271400-
KACHEMAK BAY
410 PM AKDT MON OCT 26 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 271143
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-280200-
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1005 MB LOW IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL DISSIPATE TUE AFTERNOON.
A 999 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 250 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT AND
STRENGTHEN TO 974 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE NEAR
PORT ALEXANDER.
$$

PKZ120-280200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-280200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT W WIND 20 KT IN THE WESTERN SOUND.
WINDS BECOMING W 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-280200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-280200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. WIND
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-280200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-280200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-280200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2009

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-280200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT EXCEPT N WIND 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
5 FT EXCEPT 2 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-280200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT MON OCT 26 2009

CORRECTION FOR TYPOS

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT...THE MODELS IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WERE NOT
INITIALIZING WELL IN HANDLING A LOW MOVING TOWARDS YAKUTAT. ALL OF
THE MODELS SEEMED TO BE TOO FAST WITH WINDS THAT WERE GENERALLY
UNDERDONE. OUT WEST THE MODELS SEEMED TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
A SERIES OF LOWS OVER THE BERING. THE OVERALL PACKAGE HAD HEAVY GFS
THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE PACKAGE. BEYOND THE SHORT TERM ...
DIFFERENCES START TO DEVELOP...AND THOSE DETAILS ARE DISCUSSED IN THE
LONG TERM FORECAST BELOW.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
ALASKA REGION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BERING IS DIPPING SOUTH. A
SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE KENAI PENINSULA IS WEAKENING AND A STRONG
VORT-MAX ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW IS POISED TO EJECT OUT OF
THE CYCLONIC ROTATION INTO THE EASTERN BERING. AT THE SURFACE A
STACKED LOW NEAR YAKUTAT IS MOVING ONSHORE. MEANWHILE AN EAST - WEST
ORIENTED TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE WEST OF THE LOW THROUGH PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL ARCTIC FRONT ARE SLOWLY
PIVOTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST RESULTING IN CONTINUED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. A CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING. MULTIPLE SURFACE LOWS HAVE
FORMED IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
CENTER.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
A WEAK LOW IN WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL BE DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW...COUPLED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AN
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO BRING SNOW TO THE ANCHORAGE AREA.
WHILE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT LOOKED YESTERDAY...SNOW WILL BE SEEN
ALONG TYPICAL UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HILLSIDE TODAY. EVEN THOUGH THE
FREEZING LEVELS JUMPED CLOSE TO 1000 FEET OVERNIGHT...THE MID LEVELS
CONTINUE TO COOL ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 DEGREES IN 12 HOURS. IT WILL
TAKE A WHILE TO COOL ANCHORAGE ENOUGH TO HAVE SNOW ACCUMULATE ... A
WINTERY MIX OF RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW WILL BE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THE BRUNT OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
VORT-MAX IS NOW FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN LAST NIGHT...BRINGING
DOWN THE ACCUMULATION TOTALS TO AN INCH OR LESS. MID WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION LEADING TO A DRYING TREND ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL.

OUT WEST....THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SITTING OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA CONTINUES TO PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD ...RESULTING IN
CONTINUED AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT.
THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL COMPLETELY SHEAR APART TODAY AS THE STRONG
BERING SHORT-WAVE SHOOTS THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE GULF. WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE SO THAT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY
PERSIST ALONG THE UPSLOPE OF THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WOULD APPEAR TO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT IT IS STILL EARLY IN THE SEASON AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S ARE RESULTING IN A WARM MARINE LAYER
THEREFORE...EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE LOW COMPLEX...PROVIDING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER BEFORE A
MAJOR STORM FORCE LOW MOVES TO THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS MID
WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE PLAGUED BY UNCERTAINTY. BEYOND
THURSDAY ... GLOBAL MODELS STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL STORM LUPIT IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE GFS FULLY DIVERGE FROM EACH OTHER WITH THE 25/12Z GFS DRIFTING
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN...THE 26/00Z GFS DRIFTING INTO THE BERING
AND THE 26/06Z GFS DRIFTING NORTH TOWARDS SHEMYA. THE GFS ALWAYS HAS
AN INHERENT PROBLEM OF BREAKING DOWN FAIRLY WELL ESTABLISHED RIDGES.
MEANWHILE THE ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE IS MUCH CLOSER TO THAT OF THE
LATEST 06Z SOLUTION...BUT THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS ARE ALL OVER...AND
THE 500MB HEIGHT ENSEMBLE STANDARD DEVIATION REMAINS MANY DEVIATIONS
BEYOND THE NORM...LEAVING LITTLE FAITH IN DETAILS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
A LITTLE MORE STABLE FROM RUN TO RUN...EVENTUALLY WORKING THE STORM
UP THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ... TOWARDS SHEMYA BEFORE
DISSIPATING...SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFS SOLN. PROBLEMS ARE NOT AS
EVIDENT OUT EAST AS THEY ARE IN THE WEST...BUT ALL BIG ISSUES ARE
DERIVED FROM THE INABILITY TO ACCURATELY DEAL WITH LUPIT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING WITH A TREND TOWARDS STABLE
SOLNS...IT STILL REMAINS LOW BEYOND THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...130 132 136 141 150 155 170
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

SHEA OCT 09