Gale Warning 615, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 082304
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 8 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-091400-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 991 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND WED MORNING. A 965 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW 325 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WED NIGHT WILL MOVE TO 175 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KODIAK CITY AT 972 MB THU AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ120-091400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 8 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-091400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 8 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-091400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 8 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS S OF SEAL ISLAND. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-091400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 8 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-091400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 8 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT . 
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-091400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 8 2009

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-091400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 8 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-091400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 8 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-091400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 8 2009

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 091155
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-100200-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 988 MB LOW 65 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKINAK WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
LATE WED. A 970 MB LOW 450 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK THU MORNING WILL
WEAKEN TO 978 MB AND MOVE TO 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK FRI MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-100200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-100200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-100200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-100200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-100200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-100200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-100200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-100200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NE 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-100200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT TUE SEP 8 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS SITUATED SOUTH OF THE AKPEN REGION
WHILE ANOTHER LOW IS DROPPING OUT OF THE ARCTIC INTO THE BERING.  A
FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE AKPEN LOW IS CURRENTLY BRINGING
LIGHT RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA.  ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
LOW...NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE ALEUTIANS
WHILE COLDER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE BERING.  THESE TWO LOWS WILL
MERGE LATE TOMORROW IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND BECOME A MAJOR PLAYER
IN OUR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
LOW CURRENTLY DIGGING OUT THE THE ARCTIC WILL COMBINE WITH THE AKPEN
LOW TO FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SOUTH AND WEST OF THE GULF
ON THURSDAY.  AN IMPRESSIVE 190 KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL HELP CARVE
THIS OUT AND SET THE STAGE FOR A POWERFUL STORM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...THE VERTICALLY STACKED AKPEN LOW WILL MEANDER IN
THIS REGION BEFORE A POWERFUL LOW MOVES NEAR THE SOUTHWEST GULF ON
THURSDAY.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW WILL DEEPEN INTO THE
960S EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE FILLING IN AS IT MOVES NORTH AND
EAST.  WE LIKE HOW THE ECMWF IS HANDLING THE STORM AND ARE TRENDING
TOWARDS ITS SOLUTION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA
TONIGHT WHILE CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TODAY. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECT AREAS THAT SIT ON
THE WESTERN SIDES OF MOUNTAINS TO EXPERIENCE DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL
MINIMIZE THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. THIS FRONT SHOULD HIT THE SOUTHERN
COAST WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD NOT PENETRATE TOO FAR INLAND. THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
ALONG GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STORM SHOULD
REACH MAXIMUM STRENGTH EARLY THURSDAY AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
NORTH AND EAST TO THE SOUTHERN COAST. KODIAK ISLAND LOOKS TO BE AN
AREA OF CONCERN FOR HIGH WIND DUE TO ITS RELATIVE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE STORM THURSDAY MORNING. EVEN MORE IMPORTANT...THE WATERS OF THE
GULF LOOK TO BE QUITE TREACHEROUS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

.SOUTHWEST...
AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE OVER PARTS THE AKPEN AND SOUTHERN
AREAS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS MORNING.  AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE
LOW SOUTH OF THE AKPEN WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY
DIGGING OUT OF THE ARCTIC.  DURING THIS TIME FRAME THE REGION WILL
REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH
THE AREA TILL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT THIS TO BRING SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS TO THE AREA UNTIL THEN.  THURSDAY...A NORTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFT INTO THE GULF.  THIS WILL HELP
DRY OUT MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
A NORTHERLY FLOW BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS HAS SET IN FOR MOST OF THE
EASTERN BERING AS THE LOW HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST. COLDER AIR IS
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND WILL KEEP STRONG NORTH WINDS PERSISTENT
THOUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS ALL EYES FOCUS ON FORMER TROPICAL STORM
DUJUAN.  LAST NIGHT MODELS HAD A MUCH BETTER HANDEL ON THE SITUATION
BUT NOW THEIR SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE ECMWF IS STILL
CONSISTENT OF TAKING A RELATIVELY STRONG STORM (960S MB) WEST OF ATTU
WHILE THE GFS IS TAKING A MUCH WEAKER STORM (980S MB) TO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS THURSDAY.  CURRENT THINKING IS TO USE THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
BEEN MUCH MORE CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...HOWEVER...THIS
WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AS THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY
OVER THIS POTENTIALLY STRONG STORM.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK AS THERE IS GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF MOVING A NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION
SATURDAY AND THEN SOUTH OF THE GULF BY MONDAY. IF THIS PATTERN PANS
OUT EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL SOME PRECIPITATION FOR THE
EXTENDED.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING ZONES 165 170 171 172 179 180 185 412 413 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

WILSON SEP 09