Gale Warning 565, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 292324
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-301400-
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1001 MB LOW 185 NM SOUTH OF CORDOVA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO 275 NM
SOUTH OF YAKUTAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT 1011 MB...THEN DISSIPATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ120-301400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-301400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON THROUGH WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-301400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2009

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-301400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2
FT OR LESS. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-301400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-301400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-301400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 4
FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-301400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2009

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
PATCHY MORNING FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-301400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2009

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FOOT. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 FOOT BUILDING TO 3 FT. PATCHY MORNING FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM OUT TO TUESDAY NIGHT.
LEANING TOWARD THE NAM FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE DETAIL MAINLY IN
THE EAST WHICH IS BETTER PICKING UP ON SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED
FEATURES. THEN TRENDING TO TO THE NEW GFS. OUT WEST THE MODELS STILL
A LITTLE SLOW MOVING THE FRONT INTO THE WESTERN BERING BUT SEEMS TO
BE CATCHING UP TO THE ACTUAL POSITION

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE BERING SEA WILL BUILD IN OVER SOUTHWEST AND PUSH
EASTWARD INTO MONDAY. A FRONT FROM A LOW OVER SIBERIA WILL ENTER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY TO THE
CENTRAL BERING TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
DECREASING CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. EXPECT SOME
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAINLY ALONG COOK INLET AND THE COASTAL
AREAS OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MOST AREAS. A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE TO THE NORTH
OF US TODAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP FROM THIS
SHORT WAVE BUT PRECIPITATION TO STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE ALASKA
RANGE. AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL BY MONDAY. EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT SPREADING SOUTH BY TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST

INTO WEDNESDAY KEEPING SOUTHCENTRAL CLOUDY AND WET.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH SHOULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER BRISTOL BAY AND WITH THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALONG THE WEST COAST STRATUS DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE DELTA AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST FROM THE
BERING BY SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ALONG A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH
RAIN SPREADING OVER MOST AREAS BY MONDAY.

.BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING
SEA WILL PERSIST AND SPREAD EAST TODAY REACHING THE PRIBILOFS BY
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
ROTATES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE BERING WILL ROTATE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
BY FRIDAY. CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNING 141
MARINE...GALES 175 176 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AUG 09