Gale Warning 563, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 290511 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
910 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009

UPDATED AREA 125

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-291400-
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 996 MB LOW 350 NM S OF KODIAK CITY WILL WEAKEN TO 1000 MB AS IT
MOVES TO 150 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN
FURTHER TO 1010 MB AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST 350 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-291400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT E 30 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF 
MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND
35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-291400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT SHIFTING TO THE N THIS EVENING. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-291400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
910 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-291400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT THIS EVENING...THEN
BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-291400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT W 15 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-291400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-291400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 5 
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 4
FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-291400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-291400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 291153
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-300200-
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 998 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY MOVES TO 200 NM SOUTH OF
CORDOVA SUNDAY MORNING AT 1007 MB AND THEN MOVES 225 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SITKA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AT 1012 MB.
$$

PKZ120-300200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-300200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2009

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-300200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-300200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2009

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-300200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-300200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-300200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2009

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-300200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-300200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH A NEUTRALLY TILTED LONG
WAVE UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF. MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST INCLUDE THE MULTIPLE STRONG SHORT
WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING SEA WHILE
ANOTHER COLD CORE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ROTATING ACROSS THE SEA OF
OKHOTSK...WEST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.

AT THE SURFACE...
TWO SURFACE LOWS ARE MERGING SOUTH OF KODIAK THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
BECOME ONE LARGE LOW THAT WILL MEANDER ABOUT THE GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC AND SPREADING ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE BERING SEA.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG WILL REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE
OVERALL PATTERN BUT DIFFER IN THE DETAILS. ALL MODELS SWING THE NEW
LOW TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING IT
AND DROPPING IT SOUTHEAST OUT OF OUR DOMAIN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND HOW FAR IT
MOVES NORTH BEFORE GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE UPPER FLOW AND SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST. WE FEEL THAT THE STRONGER AND MORE NORTH SOLUTION
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM IS THE BEST AT THIS TIME. MAIN EDITS WILL BE
CONCERNING THE SHORT TERM EFFECTS OF THIS SLIGHT CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHILE MID AND LONG RANGE FORECAST WILL BE LEFT AS IS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...WIDESPREAD RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST OF
TWO SHORTWAVES TO CROSS THE COAST TODAY. WINDS BEHIND THIS FIRST
OCCLUSION HAVE INCREASED TO MINIMUM GALES ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND INCREASED THE GAP WINDS TO STRONG WIND CRITERIA FOR
SEVERAL ZONES. A POSSIBLE BARRIER JET FORMED ALONG THE COAST NEAR
CORDOVA WHERE WINDS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH WERE REPORTED FOR 4
HOURS STRAIGHT. WINDS HAVE INCREASED THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND ARE
LIKELY MOVING DOWN TURNAGAIN ARM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF INLAND BY MORNING AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW SHIFTING FURTHER AWAY. COASTAL ZONES AND THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL HOLD ON TO THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE THE
LONGEST...BUT BY SUNDAY SHOULD SEE FAIR WEATHER AGAIN WITH SOME
BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

A TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL MONDAY AND THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BEHIND THE RIDGE BY MID
WEEK...BRINGING WITH IT MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING FOR THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR TODAY. SOME CLOUDS AND FOG ARE BUTTING UP AGAINST
THE ALEUTIAN MOUNTAINS BUT OTHERWISE A BEAUTIFUL START TO THE WEEKEND
FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE THE INTERIOR SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR
THROUGH SATURDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG
THE COAST ESPECIALLY THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ALASKA PENINSULA. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TOMORROW NIGHT WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS THE MOISTURE MOVES FURTHER INLAND. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST AND ANOTHER LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA RESULTING IN A LONG
FETCH OF MOISTURE FEEDING THE COASTAL ZONES. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
NUMEROUS SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS OUR DOMAIN WILL BRING PERIODS OF STRATUS
AND FOG...FOLLOWED BY A GALE FORCE FRONT AND THEN SHOWERS ON THE
BACKSIDE. THAT IS THE FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA FOR THE NEXT 6 DAYS
IN A NUTSHELL. WIDESPREAD FOG AND STRATUS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA OF OKHOTSK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN
BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
MIDWEEK WHILE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
UNDER THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WATCH ZONE 141.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 155 170 176 411 412.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB AUG 09