Gale Warning 500, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 16 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LOW OVER NORTHERN CANADA IS TRAILING A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST SOUTHEAST TO THE MAT-SU
AND COPPER RIVER VALLEYS. AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT THE ATMOSPHERE
IS STILL CONDUCIVE TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS. A
SHALLOW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS SETTING UP ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST. A LOW IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN BERING. SATELLITE SHOWS IT
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS CURRENTLY. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BANDS
STRETCH FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO THE PRIBILOFS. THE
FIRST BAND IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING NUNIVAK ISLAND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
GFS/NAM SOLUTION WAS USED IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING
A HICCUP WITH STORM EVOLUTION IN THE EXTENDED (TUE THROUGH FRI).
THEREFORE DID NOT ALTER THIS TIME PERIOD MUCH FOR NOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
WEAKENING RIDGE AND DEVELOPING TROUGH HAS ALLOWED MORE STRATUS TO
INFILTRATE SOUTHCENTRAL THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI WITH SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TODAY. INSTABILITY REMAINS ELEVATED BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. BY THE WEEKEND MODELS ARE INDICATING A FRONTAL INTRUSION
BRINGING SOME WETTING RAIN TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND EVEN UP INTO THE
MAT-SU BY SAT EVENING WITH SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE FORECAST INTO
NEXT WEEK.

.SOUTHWEST...
TODAY WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH SOME STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS
THE AREA BEFORE A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS BRINGS MORE RAIN BY TONIGHT AND THROUGH FRI.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO PERSIST TODAY AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING MOVES
THROUGH. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

LOOK FOR COOLER..MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT SHOWERY ACTIVITY WITH SOME STEADY RAIN MIXED IN BY LATE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 172 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RW JUL 09