Gale Warning 478, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 162356
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 16 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-171400-
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 16 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 988 MB LOW NEAR 56N 177E WILL BECOME A 996 MB LOW NEAR 60N 171W SAT
AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ411-171400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 16 2009

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ412-171400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 16 2009

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-171400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 16 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-171400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 16 2009

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 171147
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-180200-
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 991 MB LOW NEAR 57N 178W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 60N 173W SAT NIGHT AT
998 MB.

$$

PKZ411-180200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2009

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-180200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2009

.TODAY...NORTH OF 58N...S WIND TO 20 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT. SOUTH OF 58N...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...WEST OF 174W...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. EAST OF
174W...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-180200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2009

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF 55N AND EAST
OF 177W. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-180200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2009

.TODAY...SOUTH OF THE PRIBILOFS...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
NORTH OF THE PRIBILOFS...SOUTH WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
TO 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SOUTH OF THE PRIBILOFS...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
NORTH OF THE PRIBILOFS...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 16 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LOW OVER NORTHERN CANADA IS TRAILING A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST SOUTHEAST TO THE MAT-SU
AND COPPER RIVER VALLEYS. AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT THE ATMOSPHERE
IS STILL CONDUCIVE TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS. A
SHALLOW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS SETTING UP ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST. A LOW IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN BERING. SATELLITE SHOWS IT
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS CURRENTLY. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BANDS
STRETCH FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO THE PRIBILOFS. THE
FIRST BAND IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING NUNIVAK ISLAND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
GFS/NAM SOLUTION WAS USED IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING
A HICCUP WITH STORM EVOLUTION IN THE EXTENDED (TUE THROUGH FRI).
THEREFORE DID NOT ALTER THIS TIME PERIOD MUCH FOR NOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
WEAKENING RIDGE AND DEVELOPING TROUGH HAS ALLOWED MORE STRATUS TO
INFILTRATE SOUTHCENTRAL THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI WITH SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TODAY. INSTABILITY REMAINS ELEVATED BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. BY THE WEEKEND MODELS ARE INDICATING A FRONTAL INTRUSION
BRINGING SOME WETTING RAIN TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND EVEN UP INTO THE
MAT-SU BY SAT EVENING WITH SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE FORECAST INTO
NEXT WEEK.

.SOUTHWEST...
TODAY WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH SOME STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS
THE AREA BEFORE A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS BRINGS MORE RAIN BY TONIGHT AND THROUGH FRI.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO PERSIST TODAY AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING MOVES
THROUGH. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

LOOK FOR COOLER..MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT SHOWERY ACTIVITY WITH SOME STEADY RAIN MIXED IN BY LATE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 172 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RW JUL 09