Gale Warning 373, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED APR 1 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATISFACTORY
RESOLUTION OF ALL PRESSING SYSTEMS. OLDER ECMWF RUN HAS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WHERE OTHER MODELS JUST HAVE A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF THE MAIN LOW
TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BE A FEATURE TO WATCH MAINLY FOR THE KODIAK
AREA AS IT COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE WEATHER THERE SHOULD AN ACTUAL
SECOND LOW CENTER FORM THERE. MODELS IN THE BERING SEA ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BERING
SEA AND A FLATTENED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE AREA ARE COMBINING
TO BRING RATHER ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS RIGHT NOW. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE EDGING INTO THE COOK INLET AREA WILL BE PUSHED TO THE
ALCAN BORDER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SETTING UP AS THE 250 MB
JET STREAM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A SERIES OF HIGHS AND LOWS
WILL TRANSIT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE JET IS BEGINNING TO
AMPLIFY AND WILL CONTINUE THIS THROUGH FRIDAY AS BOTH THE LOWS AND
HIGHS STRENGTHEN AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY BROUGHT SOME SNOW INTO THESE
AREAS AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL TODAY. THIS WAVE WILL
ROTATE OVER THE NORTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AND THEN OUT OF THE AREA
BY LATE TONIGHT.
A LOW NORTH OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING
INTO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN THAT IS
DEVELOPING WILL BRING A NUMBER OF LOWS AND HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 155 165 170 171 172.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 165.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

APR 09