Gale Warning 343, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED APR 1 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATISFACTORY
RESOLUTION OF ALL PRESSING SYSTEMS. OLDER ECMWF RUN HAS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WHERE OTHER MODELS JUST HAVE A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF THE MAIN LOW
TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BE A FEATURE TO WATCH MAINLY FOR THE KODIAK
AREA AS IT COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE WEATHER THERE SHOULD AN ACTUAL
SECOND LOW CENTER FORM THERE. MODELS IN THE BERING SEA ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BERING
SEA AND A FLATTENED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE AREA ARE COMBINING
TO BRING RATHER ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS RIGHT NOW. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE EDGING INTO THE COOK INLET AREA WILL BE PUSHED TO THE
ALCAN BORDER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SETTING UP AS THE 250 MB
JET STREAM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A SERIES OF HIGHS AND LOWS
WILL TRANSIT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE JET IS BEGINNING TO
AMPLIFY AND WILL CONTINUE THIS THROUGH FRIDAY AS BOTH THE LOWS AND
HIGHS STRENGTHEN AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY BROUGHT SOME SNOW INTO THESE
AREAS AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL TODAY. THIS WAVE WILL
ROTATE OVER THE NORTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AND THEN OUT OF THE AREA
BY LATE TONIGHT.
A LOW NORTH OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING
INTO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN THAT IS
DEVELOPING WILL BRING A NUMBER OF LOWS AND HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 155 165 170 171 172.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 165.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

APR 09

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...RETRANSMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
130 AM AKDT THU APR 2 2009

AKZ121-021130-

...TRACE AMOUNTS OF ASHFALL IS FALLING OVER THE NORTHERN KENAI
PENINSULA...

THERE ARE TRACE AMOUNTS OF ASH FROM EARLIER EMISSIONS FROM REDOUBT
THIS EVENING FALLING OVER THE NORTHERN KENAI PENINSULA SOUTH OF
ANCHORAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

AVOID EXCESSIVE EXPOSURE TO ASH...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH RESPIRATORY
SENSITIVITIES. PROTECT CRITICAL ELECTRONICS AND OTHER EQUIPMENT FROM
CONTAMINATION.

THIS STATEMENT WILL ONLY BE UPDATED IF CONDITIONS CHANGE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
130 AM AKDT THU APR 2 2009

AKZ121-021130-

...TRACE AMOUNTS OF ASHFALL OVER THE NORTHERN KENAI PENINSULA...

EARLIER LOW LEVEL ASH EMISSIONS FROM REDOUBT DEPOSITED TRACE AMOUNTS
OF ASH NEAR KENAI. TRACE AMOUNTS OF ASH MAY CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE
NORTHERN KENAI PENINSULA SOUTH OF ANCHORAGE THROUGH THE NEXT 2 HOURS
AS THE REMNANTS OF THIS ASH CLOUD TRACK EASTWARD.

AVOID EXCESSIVE EXPOSURE TO ASH...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH RESPIRATORY
SENSITIVITIES. PROTECT CRITICAL ELECTRONICS AND OTHER EQUIPMENT FROM
CONTAMINATION.

THIS STATEMENT WILL ONLY BE UPDATED IF CONDITIONS CHANGE.