Gale Warning 37, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 040014
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-041500-
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 996 MB LOW 80 NM SOUTHEAST OF CORDOVA WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A 977
MB LOW 260 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
RAPIDLY MOVE TO 80 NM SOUTHWEST OF KLAWOCK SUN BEFORE MOVING INLAND. 
A TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-041500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
45 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF THE
COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-041500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-041500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-041500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.  
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-041500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-041500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-041500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 

.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-041500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF
KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 

$$

PKZ141-041500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
535 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE BIGGEST FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE A COLD UPPER LEVEL CORE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH
ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT. AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER RUSSIA CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS PINCHED OFF BY A LOW SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA AND SECOND
LOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL.

AT THE SURFACE...A 977 MB LOW NEAR THE PANHANDLE IS QUICKLY EXITING
THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
CONTINUES TO HOLD FIRM WHILE A COMPLEX LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE GRADIENT STRONG FROM ADAK WEST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
FOR THE FORECAST AREA...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT THROUGH
72 HOURS...WITH THE BIGGEST WEATHER EVENT OF INTEREST BEING THE FRONT
PARALLELING THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CHAIN. DIFFERENCES ARISE BEYOND
WITH A LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC LATE
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF...AND BOTH
ARE HINTING AT MOVING THE FIRST LOW NORTH OF KODIAK AND INTO BRISTOL
BAY WHILE A SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW SLINGSHOTS UP AND INTO THE
GULF BY THIS WEEKEND. THE EXACT TRACKS ARE STILL IN QUESTION...BUT
THE LATEST RUNS ARE PROVING REASONABLE AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH CENTERED
OVER THE BERING/ALEUTIANS IS BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY AND WILL FAVOR
STORM TRACKS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TOWARDS THE GULF.

EARLIER MODELS RUNS IN THE MID TO LONG RANGE WERE HAVING ISSUES
DISCERNING THE TRANSITION INTO A NEW PATTERN AND HOW TO DEAL WITH
ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC...AS OF 6Z THIS MORNING THE MODELS
ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW MORE CONSISTENCY....THAT SAID...THE OVERNIGHT
CREW DID VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE AND ONLY MADE
MINOR CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS THE WEEK
BEGINS...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ON THE WINDS AS THE SURFACE LOW IN THE
GULF MOVES EAST. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NORTHEAST PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. WINDS
WILL STILL BE STRONG THROUGH THE PASS TODAY...BUT THE FEELING IS THAT
IT WILL NOT MEET THE CRITERIA FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING BUT COLD WIND
CHILLS WILL STILL PERSIST. A HIGH WIND WARNING ACROSS THE COPPER
RIVER DELTA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE DELTA IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...ENHANCING WINDS FROM 50 TO 60 MPH
GUSTING TO 80 BEFORE IT WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.

IN THE SOUTHWEST...THE COLDEST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE UPPER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE NEGATIVE 50S. MAINLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WHILE THE AKPEN WILL SEE LIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE BERING WHILE THE CHAIN WILL SNOW EVENTUALLY MIXING
WITH RAIN BY TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED... A POSSIBLE BREAK
FROM THE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE TRENDING TOWARDS MULTIPLE LOWS MOVING
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE GULF. THE FIRST LOW THAT WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WILL WARM UP COASTAL AREAS...BUT IT
MAY NOT BE UNTIL THE SECOND OR THIRD LOW ENTERS THE GULF THAT THE
WARMER INFLUENCE IS FELT FURTHER INLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 135
MARINE...GALE WARNING...121 129 130 150 172 175 176 352 411 412 413
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...121 129 130 132 138 140 150 155 160 165 170
179 185 412 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

SSS JAN 09