Gale Warning 36, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 040126 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

CORRECTED ZONE 171

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-041500-
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A COMPLEX 969 MB LOW 700 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 220 NM SOUTH
OF SHEMYA SUN AND BECOMES STATIONARY THROUGH SUN NIGHT WHILE
WEAKENING TO 985 MB. A 977 MB LOW DEVELOPS SAT 260 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH
HARBOR AND MOVES TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GULF SAT NIGHT. A FRONT OVER
THE SOUTHERN BERING MOVES ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS SAT NIGHT AND SUN.
$$

PKZ150-041500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-041500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-041500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-041500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-041500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 25 KT. 

$$

PKZ170-041500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO NE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 21 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-041500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT GUSTING 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT GUSTING 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-041500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-041500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUN NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. EXCEPT E WIND 30 KT PACIFIC SIDE. 
SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-041500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-041500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-041500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1250 PM AKST FRI JAN 2 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...BLOCKING RIDGE OVER EASTERN BERING IS
BEGINNING TO BE PINCHED NEAR ITS BASE AS ENERGY ROTATES NORTHEASTWARD
FROM MAJOR CLOSED LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIANS AND ENERGY ROTATES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. THE SHORT-WAVE THAT DROPPED
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ALASKA ON THURSDAY HAS NOW DEVELOPED INTO AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THE COLD ADVECTION HAS HELPED
DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE NEWLY FORMED UPPER LOW HAS PULLED THIS LOW TO
NEAR CAPE SUCKLING. CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW HAVE MOVED ONSHORE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COPPER BASIN. THIS HAS HELPED TO MODERATE
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT...BUT IT IS STILL VERY COLD. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
MAINLAND ALASKA ARCTIC AIR IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WITH WIDESPREAD
READINGS OF 20 BELOW TO 40 BELOW THIS MORNING...AND A RECENT READING
OF 50 BELOW IN MCGRATH. COLD ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALONG
WITH THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING THE USUAL GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND BAYS. OUT WEST...THE ELONGATED
THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS THURSDAY IS NOW ORIENTED EAST-WEST
OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING. NEW LOWS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE MAJOR LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIANS WITH ONE SUCH LOW
CURRENTLY ROTATING NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
THIS IS CAUSING STRONGER WINDS WEST OF ADAK. DEVELOPMENTS FURTHER
EAST OF THE MAIN LOW ARE BING DRIVEN EASTWARD BY THE UPPER JET WITH
LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON THE ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS INITIALIZATION WAS GENERALLY GOOD. THERE
WERE SOME SMALL ERRORS IN PLACEMENT OF DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF
SHEMYA AS WELL AS THE GULF LOW. NAM HAS THE BEST POSITION ON THE
GULF LOW WHILE GFS IS BEST ON THE ALEUTIAN LOW. DISAGREEMENTS
CONTINUE WITH TRACK OF LOWS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...BUT SOLUTIONS
ARE ALL GROUPED IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA. ECMWF IS THE ODD MAN OUT
WITH TRACK OF LOW SOUTH OF SHEMYA SO PREFER THE CONSENSUS OF
GFS/NAM/UKMET. GFS IS ODD MAN OUT WITH TRACK OF A WEAKER LOW
DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT. ALL
OTHER SOLUTIONS KEEP LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKEN IT AS YET ANOTHER
LOW DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH. WILL STICK WITH THE CONSENSUS HERE AS
WELL AND GRADUALLY INCREASE WINDS ALONG CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WITH NO
INDICATION OF AN ACTUAL LOW IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT LOW
DEVELOPING IS DRIVEN QUICKLY EASTWARD ALONG THE UPPER JET...FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA THAT MODEL
DIFFERENCES ARE INSIGNIFICANT TO THE FORECAST. MODEL CONSENSUS IS
TAKES THIS LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF AS WELL. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT AND FORECASTS WILL ONLY
REQUIRE FINE-TUNING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
LOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TO NORTHWEST ALASKA WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
WESTWARD ALASKA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WHILE THE RIDGE BECOMES FULLY
CUT-OFF AND RETROGRADES INTO EASTERN RUSSIA. THIS WILL THEN ALLOW
THE SHORT-WAVE TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BERING SEA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEREFORE...ARCTIC
AIR THAT HAS RECENTLY BEEN CONDIFNED TO MAINLAND ALASKA WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA TO NEAR THE ALEUTIANS SUNDAY. COLD
ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL SET UP OFF THE ICE EDGE ALONG THE
NORTHERN TO EASTERN BERING. MEANWHILE...DEEP ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE COLD ADVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...SO WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE GULF LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN WILL
BE ABSORBED INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKING TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA
SUNDAY. THUS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WILL RELAX
A BIT TONIGHT BUT TIGHTEN RIGHT BACK UP ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST AND WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD FOR THOMPSON PASS AND FOR
THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE TORUGH THAT DROPPED SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN BERING SWINGS SOUTHEASTWARD AND THE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED
LOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TRACKS EASTWARD TO CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT TO SHIFT TO SOUTHCENTRAL WHICH WILL
AID IN MIXING DOWN MORE WIND TO THE SURFACE.

THE LOW COMPLEX SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS. GENERALLY...STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST NORTH
OF THESE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL NOT MAKE IT MUCH
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT IN INDICATING A
CHANGE IN THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE BERING/NORTH PACIFIC
AND A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC/WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WILL SET UP A STORM TRACK FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC NORTHWARD TO
THE GULF OF ALASKA. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT PARTICULAR
STORMS...BUT EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND (ESPECIALLY COASTAL AREAS) BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...130 155 165 170 172 175 176 179 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...121 129 130 138 140 141 150
                                        160 165 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JAN 09