Gale Warning 313, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 221156 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

CORRECTED ZONES 165 AND 180

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-230200-
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ150-230200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT...GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 6
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...GUSTS
TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-230200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 45 KT
OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT...GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-230200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-230200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-230200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-230200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-230200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-230200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-230200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-230200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-230200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...N WIND 30 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 30 KT. 

$$

PKZ179-230200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT SAT MAR 21 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER NORTHEAST SIBERIA IS
BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE WEST...AS AN UPPER LOW UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR IS SLIDING
SOUTHWEST...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE GULF OF
ALASKA.

AT THE SURFACE...A 997 MB LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS MOVING
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE KENAI PENINSULA. A DEVELOPING 991 MB TRIPLE
POINT LOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SOUTH OF DUTCH
HARBOR...WITH DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE SUBTROPICS AHEAD OF
THE LOW.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS...OR 12Z TUESDAY. WHILE
MINOR DIFFERENCES ARISE CONCERNING EXACT POSITIONING AND STRENGTH OF
LOWS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...THE
GENERAL SOLUTION IS THE SAME AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
CLOUDS AND SNOW WILL BE MOVING BACK INTO SOUTHCENTRAL OVERNIGHT AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IN THE GULF MOVES TOWARDS MONTAGUE ISLAND.
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR CORDOVA
AND VALDEZ WHERE DOWNSLOPING WILL DRY THINGS OUT. THE NEXT LOW
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF
SUNDAY...SPREADING MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AGAIN. WARMER AIR
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOW...WITH RAIN MIXING IN ALONG COASTAL
LOCATIONS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE TO NEAR THE BARREN
ISLANDS. CONSEQUENTLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS IN PORTAGE WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED...AS WILL POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG
KODIAK ISLAND DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. TYPICAL DOWNSLOPING
WITH THIS LOW WILL MINIMIZE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL.

.SOUTHWEST...
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MODERATING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AS CLOUDS
AND MOISTURE MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TRIPLE
POINT LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF. GUSTY WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN
WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE AKPEN THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA
MONDAY...BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER THE AKPEN AND BRISTOL BAY
ZONES...WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
TONIGHT AS THE DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ISLANDS
SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN A CONCERN OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS THROUGH
TOMORROW. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SIBERIAN BLOCK WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE MEAN TROUGH
WILL BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BERING SEA.
WHILE IN AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...THE NUMERICAL MODELS
DIFFER ON IMPORTANT DETAILS SUCH AS HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
WILL AFFECT THE STATE. IT DOES APPEAR LIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MODERATING TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES BY LATE WEEK...WITH SHOWERY
WEATHER PERSISTING OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 185
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 125 130  132 138 140 155 165 170
                      172 175 176 351 352 411 412
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 165 411 412 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NRH MAR 09