Brisk Wind Advisory 39, NWS Anchorage, AK

401 
FZAK52 PAFC 221919 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1120 AM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

UPDATED ZONE 150

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-230200-
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ150-230200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
1120 AM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-230200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
645 AM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-230200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-230200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
645 AM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-230200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-230200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
645 AM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. 
SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-230200-
UNALASKA BAY
645 AM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-230200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-230200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-230200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-230200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...N WIND 30 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 30 KT. 

$$

PKZ179-230200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
645 AM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 230002
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-231400-
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS
THROUGH TUE. A 977 MB LOW WILL BE 400 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR BY TUE
AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ150-231400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-231400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-231400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-231400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-231400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT.  
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. 

$$

PKZ170-231400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-231400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT GUSTING 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-231400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-231400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.  
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-231400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-231400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 30 KT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 30 KT. 

$$

PKZ179-231400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER MOST OF THE STATE AND BERING SEA. BLOCKING RIDGE FIRMLY IN
PLACE OVER NORTHEAST SIBERIA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE SIBERIAN BLOCK REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. AS THIS LOW
MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY IT WILL OPEN UP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE GULF AND INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW CURRENTLY
WELL SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO SWING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF TODAY AND THEN INTENSIFY AND MOVE WEST TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND.
THIS WILL BRING GALES TO GULF COAST AND MORE PRECIPITATION TO
SOUTHERN ALASKA...THOUGH MUCH OF THAT WILL NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR
INLAND.

THE GULF LOW WILL PUSH OFF THROUGH THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY
LEAVING SOUTHERN ALASKA IN A COL. THE BRISTOL BAY LOW WILL KEEP
MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO COMBINE WITH A
LOW THAT UNDERCUT THE BLOCK. ALTHOUGH TYPICALLY THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE STRUGGLES WITH THESE SORTS OF COMBINATIONS THE MODELS ARE
HANDLING IT QUITE WELL AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
ON WEDNESDAY THE COMBINED CONGLOMERATE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE MAINLAND AND BRING NORTH A SLUG OF MOISTURE. THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL CONSIST OF PERIODIC SYSTEMS
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE MEAN LOW
POSITION...WHICH WILL BE IN THE EASTERN TO CENTRAL BERING SEA. THE
SIBERIAN BLOCK WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO GO AWAY ANYTIME IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 130 132 140 150 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 150 155 165 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG MAR 09