Gale Warning 290, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 112325 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST..CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 11 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-121400-
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 11 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A WEATHER FRONT IN THE SOUTHWEST BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING WED NIGHT. A 1003 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
150 NM NORTHWEST OF ST PAUL THU AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE NEAR CAPE
NEWENHAM EARLY FRI. A 998 MB LOW 225 NM WEST OF SHEMYA THU AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE TO 200 NM WEST OF ST PAUL AT 1005 MB FRI.
$$

PKZ150-121400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 11 2009

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-121400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 11 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-121400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 11 2009

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-121400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 11 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-121400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 11 2009

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-121400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 11 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-121400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 11 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-121400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 11 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-121400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 11 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-121400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 11 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-121400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 11 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-121400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 11 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 10 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE 12Z
RUN UNTIL AROUND 72 HOURS. ONE ITEM TO WATCH IS THAT THE 18Z RUN OF
THE NAM IS BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF WED NIGHT QUITE A BIT
FARTHER WEST THAN ANY OF THE 12Z RUNS. THE NEXT FEW RUNS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED TO SEE IF THIS IS A GLITCH OR IF THE OTHER MODELS AND RUNS
START TO MOVE IT IN THIS DIRECTION. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS
THE IT WOULD BRING THE LOW INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THURSDAY. THE
CURRENT TRACKS BRING IT BETWEEN CORDOVA AND YAKUTAT SO THERE IS A BIT
OF DIFFERENCE IN WHAT WEATHER IT WOULD BRING. AT THIS TIME WE ARE
GOING WITH THE MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND A RIDGE OVER THE ALCAN BORDER.

THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY
THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS POSITIONED BETWEEN THESE FEATURES AND IS
BRINGING SOME SNOW TO AREAS AROUND THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGE IN
THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.

THE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA BUT
WILL BE A FACTOR IN THE WEATHER IN THE WESTERN AREAS. THE 250 MB JET
IS CURRENTLY RIDING OVER UN UPPER RIDGE IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA BUT
WILL FLATTEN OUT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN
140 AND 180 KT OVER THE ALEUTIANS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THERE IS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA AREA WITH RAIN IN THE KODIAK AREA AND MOSTLY SNOW IN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND.
THE SNOW ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND ALEUTIAN RANGE AS FAR WEST AS
KING SALMON LOOKS TO PERSIST WELL INTO TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...BIG QUESTION WILL CENTER OVER THE LOW MOVING
INTO THE NORTH GULF COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME SNOW INTO
THE AREA BUT HOW FAR WEST WILL BE THE BIG CONCERN.
AFTER THE LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN ALASKA AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THIS WILL BRING
COLDER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE ALASKA MAINLAND THIS WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAR 09