Gale Warning 228, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 28 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED AT 170 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE AND 40
DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. POSITIVELY TILTED NOSE OF THIS RIDGE
LEANING BACK TO YUKON. DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA
WITH WESTERLIES SWEEPING ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND KEEPING THE RIDGE
SUPPRESSED TEMPORARILY. OBLONG KNIFE-SHARP LOW ALONG 140 DEGREES
WEST SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE TOWARD WHICH SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN DROPPING
AFTER THEY CROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA. FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CHUKOTSK LOW (ALSO POSITIVELY TILTED) IS OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA THIS
MORNING AND MOVING EAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA TODAY AND ONLY
SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THIS LOW IN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH MOIST WESTERLY FLOW.

SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL DRY OUT LATER SUNDAY AS THE
LOW DROPS SOUTH AND A WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE AREA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA EARLY MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK AND THE FRONT WILL BREAK APART MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HAVING MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A STRONGER SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE BERING SEA TUESDAY AND THIS PUSHES
UP A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL REACH SOUTHWEST ALASKA PROBABLY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND SOUTH CENTRAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE BASIC PATTERN OF TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY LONGER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 130.
         GALE WARNING 120 132 150 155 170 172 175 176 179 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG FEB 09