Gale Warning 225, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 27 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW WITH THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION ALONG
ABOUT 165 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE...A DEEP LOW OVER SIBERIA AND A
SHARP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA.

THE RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE HAS BEEN THE STUBBORN FEATURE FOR THE LAST
WEEK OR TWO. SYSTEMS RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND IT JUST POPS
BACK UP AGAIN. SURFACE PRESSURE HAS BEEN CORRESPONDINGLY HIGH AS
WELL...SO THAT WHEN LOWS CROSS ALASKA THERE ARE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENTS (AND WIND) BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE LOWS. THIS PATTERN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
AN OPEN TROUGH WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA TODAY FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER. THIS WILL RANGE FROM
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO FREEZING RAIN TO STRONG WINDS AND RAPIDLY
FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES. SOUTH CENTRAL WILL BE DRY AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AND THEN SOUTH CENTRAL
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO SOUTHERN
ALASKA ON SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM REACHING THE WEST COAST OF
ALASKA SUNDAY EVENING

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
POSSIBILITY OF THE RIDGE RETROGRADING NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THIS IS
BEYOND THE PERIOD WHERE THERE IS ANY CONFIDENCE IN NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 155.
MARINE...GALE WRNG 130 132 150 155 160 165 170 172 176 179 180 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WRNG 160 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG FEB 09