Gale Warning 197, NWS Anchorage, AK

069 
FZAK52 PAFC 182353
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST WED FEB 18 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-191500-
400 PM AKST WED FEB 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND INLAND THIS
EVENING. A 978 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 300 NM SOUTHWEST OF
ADAK FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ150-191500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST WED FEB 18 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-191500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST WED FEB 18 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-191500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST WED FEB 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SUN AND MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-191500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST WED FEB 18 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-191500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST WED FEB 18 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SNOW.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. 
.SUN AND MON...S WIND 25 KT. 

$$

PKZ170-191500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST WED FEB 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-191500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST WED FEB 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-191500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST WED FEB 18 2009

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-191500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST WED FEB 18 2009

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 26 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-191500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST WED FEB 18 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
24 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 32 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-191500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST WED FEB 18 2009

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. 
.SUN AND MON...S WIND 25 KT. 

$$

PKZ179-191500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST WED FEB 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.

.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST WED FEB 18 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AT THE SURFACE...A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
WITH A 1035 MB HIGH SLIDING EASTWARD OVER INTERIOR ALASKA. TRANSITORY
RIDGING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE
EASTERN MAINLAND. A 967 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BERING SEA
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING INLAND OVER EASTERN SIBERIA. A FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW IS MOVING EASTWARD...CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE RIDGING IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN BERING SEA IS LIFTING INTO EASTERN SIBERIA...WITH A
BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS VORTEX DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN
BERING. A 150 KT JET POSITIONED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES CONTINUES
TO PUMP WARM AND MOIST AIR OVER THE REGION.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL 00Z FRIDAY...WHEN PROBLEMS ARISE
WITH POSITIONING OF SYSTEMS IN THE PROGRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS WERE USED TO MAKE SMALL CHANGES TO THE EXISTING
FORECAST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER INTERIOR ALASKA THIS MORNING WILL BE
GIVING WAY TO THE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO
SOUTHCENTRAL AS WE HEAD INTO THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS THROUGH
TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BECOME A CONCERN TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW AS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT COUPLES WITH A STRONG
JET STREAK MOVING OVERHEAD. MAIN PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM PERTAINS
TO PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN WILL PREDOMINATE ALONG
COASTAL AREAS DUE TO INTENSE WARM AIR ADVECTION. ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE
BOWL...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS PRECIP MAY BRIEFLY START OUT AS SNOW
BEFORE A RAIN SNOW MIX QUICKLY TAKES OVER. A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR AND TURN PRECIP BACK TO
ALL SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL THEREFORE BE LIMITED TO ANY SNOW THAT
FALLS AFTER CHANGING BACK OVER TO SNOW. FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE...ANOTHER GOOD UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT WILL COMMENCE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WARNING LEVEL SNOW EXPECTED NORTH AND EAST OF
TALKEETNA. IT LOOKS AS IF SUFFICIENTLY WARM AIR MAY PENETRATE AS FAR
NORTH AS TALKEETNA...RESULTING IN A SNOW AND RAIN MIX FOR THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY. AS THE FRONT AND TROUGH PASS
TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH AREAS OF CHANNELED TERRAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
INTERIOR AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS IN THE GULF.

.SOUTHWEST...
THE MAJOR STORY IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND THE FRONT BEGINNING
TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS MORNING. STRONG WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS MORNING...WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS COMING TO AN END ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AS WARM AIR
INFILTRATES THE REGION. DUE TO WARM AIR MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN OVER ALL AREAS
EXCEPT THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY...GOOD DYNAMICS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC SNOW EVENT THROUGH THURSDAY.
ACCORDINGLY...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY
MORNING...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TURN ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION
BACK TO SNOW OVER ALL OF SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER SHOT AT SNOW PRIMARILY
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOFS
TODAY...USHERING IN COOLER AIR AS IT PASSES. REMNANT SHOWERS WILL
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER.
BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND DIMINISHING SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EASTERLY WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ISLANDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA
FRIDAY...MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE ALEUTIANS...WITH A SERIES OF
SURFACE LOWS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE BERING
SEA. GENERALLY EXPECT COOLER AND MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
MAINLAND...WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS FOR
THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING...155
         WINTER STORM WARNING...145
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...151
MARINE...GALE WARNING...130 138 150 155 160 165 170 175 176 180
                        185 411 412 413 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NRH FEB 09