Gale Warning 157, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 060226 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
525 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2009

UPDATED 125

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-061500-
400 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 998 MB LOW NEAR SEWARD WILL DISSIPATE OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
THU EVENING. A 1003 MB LOW 650 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 978 MB 100 NM EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND FRI NIGHT THEN
MOVE INLAND NEAR YAKUTAT SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ120-061500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND... VARIABLE
WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-061500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-061500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
525 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4
FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-061500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.  

$$

PKZ130-061500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 9 FT EXCEPT 4 FT WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT 16 FT EAST OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT 16 FT EAST OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-061500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
..MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-061500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2009

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-061500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE EARLY EVENING. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-061500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 061233
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 6 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-070300-
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 999 MB LOW 350 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT WILL STRENGTHEN TO 984 MB AND
MOVE INLAND NEAR ICY BAY SAT MORNING. A 988 MB LOW WILL FORM NEAR
MIDDLETON ISLAND SAT AFTERNOON AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
SUN MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-070300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 6 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-070300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 6 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-070300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 6 2009

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-070300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 6 2009

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-070300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 6 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-070300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 6 2009

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-070300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 6 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-070300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 6 2009

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-070300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 6 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST THU FEB 5 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AT THE SURFACE A 1000 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. A
982 MB LOW IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. A FRONT
EXTENDS OFF OF THIS LOW SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. A
1000 MB LOW IS DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH AND WEAKENING CLOSED LOW ARE OVER THE
BERING SEA. A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
EASTERN MAINLAND. A 145 KT JET STREAK STRETCHES THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS...BUT
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE AFTERWARD. MAIN DIFFERENCES PERTAIN TO THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF A LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH PACIFIC...AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. DIFFERENCES ALSO
EXIST REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
EXISTING FORECAST PACKAGE PAST 60 HOURS...WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM
SOLUTIONS IN THE SHORT TERM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
THE WEAK LOW IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND IS DISSIPATING WHILE MOVING INTO
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
ARE STILL AFFECTING SOME AREAS...BUT ARE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES
NORTHWARD...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK INTO COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. KODIAK ISLAND WILL SEE AN
ADDITIONAL SHOT AT PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE WESTERN MAINLAND. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SOUTHWEST...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...KUSKOKWIM DELTA...AND BRISTOL BAY AREAS TODAY AS THE LOW
NEAR SAINT MATTHEW MOVES INLAND. SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS SYNOPTIC
FORCING INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER
THE AREA. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO BRISTOL BAY SUNDAY MORNING.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
BRISK WINDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. A FRONT WELL AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
BEGIN IMPACTING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
WHILE MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR IN THE EXTENDED...STILL EXPECT TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA TO SWING THROUGH MAINLAND ALASKA WITH
WEAK RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA THROUGH
MONDAY. MODELS DO AGREE ON BRINGING A LOW INTO THE BERING SEA EARLY
IN THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA DURING
THE SAME TIME FRAME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM 175 176
         GALE 132 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 179
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 155 165 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NRH FEB 09