Gale Warning 114, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH THE
GFS TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH
AND POSITION OF THE BERING SEA LOW AND AND THE NEXT LOW COMING INTO
THE GULF.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
AND HAS SPREAD SNOW INTO THE COOK INLET, SUSITNA VALLEY AND THE KENAI
PENINSULA. A WEAK LOW APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND AND WILL MOVE TOWARD PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS EVENING.
THE LOW NORTH OF THE PRIBILOFS PRODUCED STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE PRIBILOFS THIS MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER
TURNAGAIN ARM WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF SNOW OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL
UNTIL AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER GULF AND EASTERN MAINLAND CONTINUES
TO MOVE TOWARD CANADA. OTHERWISE, SOUTHERN ALASKA REMAINS UNDER A
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
UPPER AIR...THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST BERING
SATURDAY AND CREATE A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE BERING SEA.

AT THE SURFACE...ALL MODEL INDICATE THAT THE WEATHER FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY THIS EVENING AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN TONIGHT. THE WEAK LOW NEAR KODIAK WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS EVENING. THE
LOW APPROACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS ON
PREVIOUS RUNS SO WINDS AROUND THE CENTER WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE. THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND MOVE INTO THE YUKON DELTA NEAR CAPE ROMANZOF FRIDAY
EVENING THEN WEAKEN OVER WESTERN ALASKA SATURDAY. STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE BERING LOW WILL BRING MOVE
COLD AIR INTO SOUTHWEST, THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF...
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEATHER FRONT WILL BECOME SNOW SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT. MOVE SNOW, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN WILL MOVE BACK
ONTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
THEN CHANGE BACK TO SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA...
SNOW OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL BECOME SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT. MORE SNOW, ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
BERING SEA, WILL MOVE INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GALE TO POSSIBLE STORM FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE BERING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREAS THROUGH MONDAY. THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER
WESTERN ALASKA THROUGH MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...MODEL AGREEMENT
RAPIDLY FALLS APART THROUGH SUNDAY. GENERAL INDICATIONS SHOW A WEAK
LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A
NEW STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS SATURDAY NIGHT
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 150, 155, 160, 165, 170, 172, 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM FEB 09