Gale Warning 150, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 040255 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 3 2009

CORRECTED HEADLINE ZONE 129

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-041500-
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 990 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK CITY MOVES TO 100 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY AT 986 MB WED MORNING...THEN MOVES ONSHORE
NEAR SITKA AT 1000 MB THU MORNING. 

$$

PKZ120-041500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 3 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 30
KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING N WIND 10 KT.
SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-041500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 3 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-041500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 3 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-041500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 3 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 35
KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-041500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 3 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE WIND 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-041500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 3 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-041500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 3 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE WIND 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-041500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 3 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE WIND 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
N OF KALGIN ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-041500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 3 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.   

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST TUE FEB 3 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
AGREEMENT NOT SO GREAT WITH THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE EVEN BY 36 HOURS.
DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW FORMING IN THE
GULF ON WEDNESDAY ARE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FORECASTING
UNCERTAINTY. THE GENERAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
FOR A WHILE...BUT BY 00Z SATURDAY (FRIDAY AFTERNOON) THE DIFFERENCES
BECOME LARGE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LOW OVER OVER THE STATE WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH SOUTH THROUGH
THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST BERING
SEA WITH A FLANKING TROUGH OVER THE SEA OF OKHOTSK. STRONG NEARLY
FULL LATITUDE RIDGE JUST EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE AND A
TRANSITORY FLATTENING RIDGE SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TODAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS NORTHEAST. THIS WILL OPEN UP PROGRESSIVELY
MORE ZONAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
FIRST SYSTEM TO RIDE THIS RIVER IS A WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT. A TRIPLE
POINT LOW WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND PICK UP STEAM
AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.

BY THURSDAY MORNING THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME QUITE
PRONOUNCED AND A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ALASKA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER TROUGH SETTLES INTO ALASKA. HOW LONG THIS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE STATE IS A HOTLY CONTESTED ITEM AMONGST THE MAJOR GUIDANCE. THE
GFS WOULD LIKE TO KICK IT OUT QUICKLY...BY MONDAY MORNING WHILST THE
ECMWF WOULD PREFER TO HOLD ON TO IT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MORNING
FORECAST PACKAGE REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH A FORECAST OF
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 172 175 176.
         GALE WARNING 155 160 170 185.
         HVY FRZ SPRY WARNING 121 125 129 130 132 138 140 141.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG FEB 09